Introduction: the module; key concepts in methodology Research Methods I Introduction: the module; key concepts in methodology

The Module 11 lectures, 10 seminars End of module exam: 2 hours (50%) Applied project (2500 words) (25%) Dissertation proposal (25%) Methodology/philosophy of science Research design and data collection Data analysis

Why study Methodology? “…sciences have been created and revolutionised by those who have not stopped to analyse their own method of enquiry” J.N.Keynes (1890) The Scope and Method of Political Economy, quoted from Hausman (1982: 72) Think about what you are doing!!

What is Methodology? The study of methods and of philosophy (usually epistemology) underlying those methods (my definition) Commonly now only means “what has been done” Prescriptive vs. descriptive Problem of nocturnal vs. diurnal philosophy Most methodology has had prescriptive elements  “science”

What is “Science”? Very controversial: no one definition Can define it in terms of: outcomes, progress; processes, methods Outcomes: explanations; predictions; changes in society (e.g. U; revolution); laws (usually: generalities of form “if X then Y”); theories; models; necessity

What is “Science”? Progress: verification (positivism); falsification (Popper); novel facts (Lakatos); puzzle-solving and consensus (Kuhn); social goals (as above) Processes: systematic; social; peer review; critical; objectivity; “scientific language”; routine and repetition (Shipman); “scientific method”

What is “Science”? Methods: formulation and testing of hypotheses; abstraction; ceteris paribus; experiment Economists want to mimic natural science (particularly physics) (cf. Mirowski, 1989) Induction (a posteriori method): past experience  generalities Problem of induction: world is changing; can observe 100 white swans, but next one might be black

Deduction Move from assumptions to conclusions E.g.: syllogism (the form of deduction) A1: Peter was in London at 9pm A2: the murder was committed at 9pm in Bristol A3: people can be in only one place at one time Conclusion: Peter did not commit the murder Assumptions can be “covering laws” Then  deductive-nomological model

Deduction E.g.: D-N model Beware hidden assumptions A1: Peter is a cat (particular case) A2: all cats have whiskers (covering law) Conclusion: Peter has whiskers Beware hidden assumptions Beware silly or unjustifiable assumptions

John Stuart Mill J.S.Mill (1806-73): one of the 19th century’s most influential thinkers Liberalism Logic One of the first texts explicitly on economic methodology (1844)

The Millian Methodology Economics is concerned with wealth Economics is a science Economics would like to be like physics but no experimentum crucis Deduction not induction (economics = a priori) Empirically-supported assumptions Abstraction necessary Build up models Get to tendency statements: laws “if X then Y under E”/Ceteris Paribus; add details Verify by observation

J.N.Keynes (father of J.M.K) (1890) Social science more complex than natural science Economics is positive not ethical Purpose of economics: discover facts and truths Need deduction and induction; and claims economics uses both (cf. Nocturnal-diurnal distinction) Trying to bridge gap in Methodenstreit and attack on/by Historicists Deduction needs to consider the conditions necessary for them to hold Hypothetico-Deductive model

Hypothetico-Deductive model hypothesis Revised hypothesis deduction induction proposition Empirical testing From Dow, S. (2002: 82)

Lionel Robbins (1932) Looking to delineate a specific approach to economics Economics as scarcity plus alternative uses Looking for generalisations Deduction required from Axioms Notes problem of hidden assumptions Precision essential Highly positivist approach

Conclusions In this lecture we have examined: The need to study methodology The notion of science Inductive and deductive logic The visions for and methodologies of economics of Mill, J.N.Keynes and Robbins The module explores all these themes further