CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis.

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Presentation transcript:

CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis

Earth’s Climate Has Undergone Many Changes Warm Cold Icy Not icy How do they know past climates? Recent – data records Historic records – further into human history: droughts, floods, etc Paleoclimates – deduce from ‘proxies’: Ice cores, tree rings, coral growth, sediment deposits (CaCO3) Cambrian ‘explosion’ of life Today

Temps Vary, but the Trend is Clear: a Warming Atmosphere

Increasing Rates Of Warming Compare line slope

Temperature is correlated with CO2 Year-by-year atmospheric CO2

Fossil fuel use > CO2 byproduct > Warming Temperature Fossil Fuel use Lagged means 25 time lag (time for atmospheric build up)

Compounding factor: permafrost methane Methane released as soil thaws from the atmosphere. Methane's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2 Impact of CH4 is 20x that of CO2

Factoring in all predicted greenhouse gas concentrations Same trend Different models The UN Climate Change Report (1/10)

well, not quite

RAMIFICATIONS OF WARMING

Warming Oceans 3 studies, same pattern healthy vs bleached reef

Reduced ice cover at the north pole

Corresponding change in sea level Past 300 years 20th century

Warming Land Glaciers receding Earlier snow melt

Ocean Acidification CO2 + H2O -> carbonic acid

Ecosystem Change both habitat & biota Alpine chipmunk Neotamias alpinus Grinnell resurvey project a century of change

Sixth Mass Extinction of Life on Earth Golden Toad Incilius periglenes Grinnell resurvey project a century of change

Despite the evidence not all are convinced • International consensus 130 nations • Scientific consensus 1250 scientists • Extensive studies 12,000 papers • Exhaustive peer review 90,000 comments U.S. Senator J. Imhofe, OK Environmental and Public Works Committee Author: The Greatest Hoax*: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future. (2012) skeptical –> raise questions deny –> refuse The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology. *a deliberately fabricated falsehood made to masquerade as truth. Gallup poll Imhofe is not alone Links Why? An explanation in the Stanford Social Review

How to proceed? Opposing claims: • Global warming • No global warming Opposing actions: • act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • take no action 1 3 4 2 Discuss/record on whiteboards the consequences of each pair on: • the environment • biodiversity • economies 1 3 2 4

http://www. livescience. com/common/media/video/player. php http://www.livescience.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=GoldilocksGreen (6 min) http://videos.howstuffworks.com/hsw/22369-extreme-climate-the-role-of-the-greenhouse-effect-video.htm (6min) Look for more at How Stuff Works Sci Amer Frontiers http://www.hulu.com/watch/23343/scientific-american-frontiers-hot-planet-%E2%80%93-cold-comfort (22 min) http://www.movieweb.com/tv/TVLsmRLNaWMHQM/season-20-earth-day-message-heating

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