A COMMON VISION FOR A WAY OUT OF THE CYPRUS CONUNDRUM

Among the top unresolved protracted conflicts in the world Entered into the UN Security Council’s agenda in 1950s Intercommunal peace negotiations began in 1968 1974 Greek’s Failed Coup and Turkey’s Military Intervention 1977-79 High Level Agreements designed a new track of intercommunal peace negotiations based on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation 1993 UN-proposals of Confidence Building Measures sought to bridge the huge gap of trust 2004 Failed Annan Plan referendum 2008 Joint Statement and Establishment of Six Working Groups and Seven Technical Committiees

Many stakeholders have lost hope, but they still have desire

Once again it was at the edge of resolution In May 2015, Mustafa Akıncı and Nikos Anastasiades have reached significant convergence on the internal aspects. Initial Plans for important CBMs (uniting the electricity grids & mobile phone roaming) Significant number of convergences on the substantive issues

Distinguishing Characteristics of May 2015 Negotiations Continued building based upon the existing aggreements and a greater level of convergences (particularly in the governance and powersharing and the economic affaires) than in the past The two Cypriot sides exchanged maps with one another Fivefold Conference (in Genova) hold between three guarantor powers and the two Cypriot sides for the first time since 1960

rotational presidency and effective participation to decision making how to ensure the Cyprus settlement is part of EU primary law The emotional attachment of displaced persons to their immovable property

The Lingering Issue The thorny issue of security and guarantees presents a significant challenge to reaching a deal. External Sovereignty The involvement of three guarantors

Maximalist behavior and positional bargaining Relevant sides are stuck to their respective opening positions in the negotiations Greece doesn`t accept any guarantees while majority of Greek Cypriots do not accept Turkish unilateral intervention rights and Turkish Troops on the future unite Cyprus federation Turkey doesn`t accept any solution without effective and de facto guarantee rights while majority of Turkish Cypriots state that they would not accept a federation without some sort of Tukish Guarantees and presence of some number of Turkish troops.

Mytopic stance on the security issue is problematic Debates on security issue have remained very narrow that: Leads to a win-lose equation All soft power-related internal security mechanisms that should exist in a future united federal Cyprus are omitted

What is the key to solving the security&guarantees issue? Findings of the Security Dialogue research conducted shows that security needs and fears of the two communities in Cyprus are not limited to hard security concerns, but also include those related to: justice, functionality of the state, economic security, and gender security. A possible shortcut formula would be some sort of transitional period that would be acceptable for both sides in a future referenda and safeguard the sustainability of an overall settlement. A holistic perspective that would move the parties from the hard power oriented win-lose formulation to win-win formulations

Designing a formula with a common vision To satisfy the five parties and to deal with its security problems without outside assistance based upon creating effective and efficient public institutions with capacity and the resilince that an foster civil loyalty and hence, ensure the sustainability of a comprehensive settlement in Cyprus

The key principles of the new security architecture? Should effectively respond to both actual and perceived threats. Preventive remedies are as important as reactive remedies. Building endogenous resilience and a sustainable settlement should be the common vision.

What kind of internal security mechanisms are desired? Reaching an aggrement on Exclusive Economic Zone Staged transition via a Treaty of Implementation Establishment of a federal commission on human rights and gender equality Effectively and communally blind police and judiciary and federal rapid reaction force.