AWG 2018 exercise: Purpose and key fiscal sustainability indicators European Commission

2018 Ageing Report (1) Joint Commission (ECFIN)-EPC (AWG) long-term projection exercise – 2018 Ageing Report Sixth update of the joint EPC-Commission long-term projections (previous 2001, 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015). Mandate of the ECOFIN Council (May 2015) " The Council INVITES the Economic Policy Committee to update, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat, in close cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs), its analysis of the economic and budgetary implications of population ageing by the autumn of 2018"

2015 Ageing Report 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060) Published on 12 May Council (ECOFIN) conclusions adopted on the same day

Large differencies across Member States Confirm that population ageing put upward pressure on public spending in the EU(2013-60) Large differencies across Member States

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2015 Published on 26 January Available on DG ECFINs web-site Council (ECOFIN) conclusions adopted on 8 March Latest update: Debt Sustainability Monitor 2016 Published in January 2017

DSM 2016: multi-dimensional approach to fiscal sustainability Sustainability challenges assessed: Over the short run (S0 indicator) Over the medium run (S1 indicator + debt sustainability analysis, DSA) Over the long run (S2 indicator) Other aspects considered: structure of public debt, public gross financing needs, contingent liabilities, public assets

Overall sustainability assessment in the DSM 2016 (in bracket, FSR 2015 classification if different) Short-term : no country at high risk Medium term: 12 countries at high risk, 4 at medium risk - Few classification changes (Up: HU, PL, Down: IE, RO, NL) Long term: 1 country at high risk (SI), 13 countries at medium risk

Next steps 2018 Ageing Report on underlying assumptions: September 2017 2018 Ageing Report with budgetary projections: Q1-2018