Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Multi-scale Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation ***** Organized Precipitation Systems ***** Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR & Duane Waliser, JPL/CalTech Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group Seamless Prediction ***** Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

Parameterized & explicit convection Realistic representation of atmospheric convection in global models universally recognized to be a strategic problem. Cloud-system resolving models (CRM) explicitly represent organized mesoscale precipitation systems. CRM resolution (~ 1 km mesh) operates in regional NWP. CRM applied in climate models as super-parameterization Global NWP and climate models will require convective parameterization for the foreseeable future, should represent organized precipitation systems. ~10 km mesh: a parameterization terra incognita, hybrid (explicit + parameterized) convection

restrictive approximations Traditional cumulus parameterization Climate model mesh ~100 km Cumulus scale ~ 1 km Scale gap Scale-gap assumption implies restrictive approximations Microphysics 1 km 100 km Horizontal scale Traditional cumulus parameterization assumes a scale gap

Organized precipitation systems invalidates the scale-gap assumption Mesoscale organization of precipitating convection A continuum: no scale gap Microphysics 1 km 100 km Horizontal scale Organized precipitation systems invalidates the scale-gap assumption

Advanced tools 100 m 1 km 10 km 100 km LES-CRM (~100 m) Global CRM (~1 km) Global NWP (~10 km) Climate (~100 km) Satellite observations Microphysics Horizontal scale 100 m 1 km 10 km 100 km Advanced tools

Simulated convective organization (100 m mesh; 200 km x 200 km computational domain) Courtesy: Marat Khairoutdinov (SUNY/Stoney Brook & CMMAP)

MJO in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) Conventional parameterization (CAM) Super-parameterization (SP-CAM) Khairoutkinov et al. (2004)

Global CRM: Japan NICAM MTSAT-IR NICAM 3.5 km, 2-week Courtesy: Taroh Matsuno, FRGCC

Improved MJO in ECMWF model … encouraging for climate models

Aquaplanet Experiment Model Inter-Comparison (Climate Models) NICAM Courtesy: Mike Blackburn (U. Reading) & Dave Williamson (NCAR)

Seamless prediction & precipitation bias Courtesy: J. Boyle, CAPT project, LLNL Seamless prediction & precipitation bias

- Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA “Year” (data archiving period): May 2008-April 2010 for ECMWF data; indefinite for NASA/GMAO, NOAA/NCEP data sets Targeted research - MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves - Monsoons and intraseasonal variability - Easterly waves and tropical cyclones - Tropical-extratropical interaction - Diurnal cycle Outreach - YOTC sessions at major conferences: 2008 Fall AGU; 2009 Spring AGU; 2009 AMS Annual Conference; 2009 Fall AGU YOTC Project Office - Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA YOTC Implementation Workshop (July 13-15 2009)

YOTC Science Plan, Implementation Plan, etc: www.ucar.edu/yotc Complete analyses, forecasts, special diagnostics ECMWF T799 – 25km, on-line NASA GMAO (see YOTC website) NCEP - 40km, in progress Observations & integrated data sets Multi-sensor satellite data (inclined-orbit and geostationary) Field-campaigns, emphasis on tropics Long-term in-situ measurements in tropics(DOE/ARM) Satellite-data analysis, dissemination and visualization: NASA Goddard Giovanni 14

Kelvin Waves and tropical convection: June 19, 2008 Orbit analyzed

A-Train Data Interface Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination NASA Giovanni A-Train Data Interface June 19, 2008 16

YOTC Implementation: Collaborative research Weather: initial-value problem for climate (seamless prediction) - CCRP ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT, US DOE) - Transpose-AMIP (weather IVP for climate): 5-day hindcasts of YOTC events by Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), contribution to CMIP5 - Hindcasts with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model utilizing super-parameterization (SP-CAM) for same events (CMMAP) MJO & Monsoon Interseasonal Oscillation (MJO-MISMO) - MJO hindcasts: UK Cascade (boreal winter ) and CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP) - MISMO: Rapid northward propagation of ITCZ in 2009, effects on Indian monsoon rainfall (weak monsoon). - Heavy-rain episodes: Asian Monsoon Years (AMY); Meiyu front in China.

Global CRM experiments for YOTC events: NASA GEOS-5 cubed-sphere model (C1440, C720); Japanese NICAM GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS): Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC: transition of stratocumulus, trade-cumulus, ITCZ. Tropical-Extratropical interaction - THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes, TPARC and TCS08. Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones - AMMA EOP cases during YOTC NCAR Tropical Channel Model (TCM) simulations: - 10-km mesh, 2-year integration, ECMWF T799 YOTC dataset for initial & meridional boundary conditions - Maritime Continent ‘prediction barrier’: orographic, diurnal cycle, coastal effects on MJO (nested TCM)

Priorities & strategic developments - Bring above collaborative research (YOTC Implementation Plan) to fruition -- multi-year effort. - Expand involvement of tropical nations (e.g., Africa, China, India, Korea, S. America) who have great interest in YOTC. - Application of YOTC observational-computational research resource, i.e., high-resolution models (operational & research) + NASA Giovanni-YOTC satellite dissemination/analysis/visualization facility. Strategic developments - As a region of opportunity, Indian Ocean region is comparable to Pacific in late ‘80s-early ‘90s (TAO and drifter deployment, leading to TOGA COARE). How can YOTC advance Indian Ocean research? - YOTC‘s observational-computational research resource can address the weather-climate element of tropical convection/global interaction as a “virtual field-campaign”: i) formulate hypotheses for multiscale observational evaluation; ii) set field-campaigns into a large-scale context; iii) pathway to improved convective parameterization.

YOTC planning publications Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, 204-211. Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, and others, 2009: The multiscale organization of tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review. Waliser, D. E., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2007: Year of Tropical Convection: A joint WCRP-THORPEX Activity to Address the Challenge of Tropical Convection., GEWEX News, 17, 8-9. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan, WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP-130, WWRP/THORPEX, No 9, 26 pp. [on-line at www.ucar.edu/yotc]