Pre-industrial and historical simulations with MPI-ESM-HAM

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Presentation transcript:

Pre-industrial and historical simulations with MPI-ESM-HAM SALSA M7 Pre-industrial and historical simulations with MPI-ESM-HAM David Neubauer, Doris Folini Sylvaine Ferrachat, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Jens Stoll, Ulrike Lohmann, Thorsten Mauritsen and many more C2SM GCM User Workshop, 27.06.2017 CSCS Swiss National Supercomputing Center

HAMMOZ ECHAM-HAMMOZ is a global aerosol-chemistry climate model HAM submodel for tropospheric aerosol M7 modal or SALSA sectional aerosol size distribution MOZ submodel for tropospheric an stratospheric chemistry JAM002 or GAM001 atmospheric mechanisms

MPI-ESM-HAM Aerosol module HAM coupled with MPI-ESM MPI-ESM-HAM ~4x slower than MPI-ESM Two versions: MPI-ESM1.0-HAM «CMIP5-version» ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2 based MPI-ESM1.2-HAM «CMIP6-version» ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3 based

Projects Sensitivity to aerosol and ocean representations ECHAM vs. ECHAM-HAM Atmosphere only vs. MLO vs. fully coupled Phd thesis Tanja Dallafior

Projects BACCHUS CMIP6/AerChemMIP Feedbacks associated with changed emissions, shrinking sea ice CMIP6/AerChemMIP Contribution of the HAMMOZ community to IPCC/AR6 Focus on atmospheric aerosol processes

Tuning strategy for MPI-ESM-HAM different cloud schemes Increasing response time same ocean spin-up

Offset and/or drift Drift Offset Spin-up time

AGREES DIFFERS MPI-ESM1.2 vs. MPI-ESM1.2-HAM (standard scores; pre-industrial simulation; 50 year spin-up)

MPI-ESM1.2 vs. MPI-ESM1.2-HAM (standard scores; pre-industrial simulation; 50 year spin-up) AGREES

MPI-ESM1.2 vs. MPI-ESM1.2-HAM (drift; pre-industrial simulation; 50 year spin-up) GOOD WORSE

MPI-ESM1.2 vs. MPI-ESM1.2-HAM (drift; pre-industrial simulation; 50 year spin-up) GOOD WORSE

MPI-ESM1.2 vs. MPI-ESM1.2-HAM (20 year running mean; pre-industrial simulation) Deep ocean would need longer spin-up

MPI-ESM1.0-HAM historical simulations (MPI-ESM1.0-HAM : ECHAM6.1 + HAM2.2)

t459: historical simulations & single forcing experiments all transient, no expl. volcanoes all transient, with expl. volcanoes GHG only, no expl. volcanoes AERO only, no expl. volcanoes as h109, ensemble member 2 as h109, ensemble member 3 in black: MPI-ESM-LR historical, CMIP5 11 year running means of temp2 piControl drift removed offsets removed, so all curves start at 286.7 K 2010 1850 Estimated warming 1850-2010 (+0.8K) Based on HadCRUT4.2 Taken from Stevens (2015), Fig. 3 points to note absolute values in 1850 reasonable MPI-ESM: weak aerosol effects (hist.: +0.9K; GHG: +1.2K; AERO: -0.2K) GHG: stronger warming than MPI-ESM → similar climate sensitivity to GHG AERO: substantial cooling (-1.0K) historical: little historical warming (+0.2K); reasonable warming (+0.5K) since ~ 1970

alternative worlds: historical simulations, no expl. volcanoes corresponding piControl simulations <T>[K] ECS [K] ERF [W/m2] t459 286.6 2.92 -1.58 t511 286.6 2.85 -1.39 t509 286.6 t455 286.9 2.93 -1.62 t516 286.9 3.14 -2.24 in black: MPI-ESM-LR historical, CMIP5 ECS: 3.63 K 11 year running means of temp2 piControl drift removed offsets removed, so all curves start at 286.7 K 2010 1850 Estimated warming 1850-2010 (+0.8K) Based on HadCRUT4.2 Taken from Stevens (2015), Fig. 3 points to note still less warming than MPI-ESM some worlds show more warming (+0.5K, h102) than others (+0.2K, h100) limited data so far (see top right), but: smaller ERF (and / or larger ECS) → more warming? ECS: MLO simulations, doubling of CO2, 285 → 570 ppm, 30 years, first 10 discarded ERF: atmosphere only, aerosols 2000 vs. 1850, 30 years, first 10 discarded

alternative worlds: historical simulations, no expl. volcanoes corresponding piControl simulations <T>[K] ECS [K] ERF [W/m2] t459 286.6 2.92 -1.58 t511 286.6 2.85 -1.39 t509 286.6 t455 286.9 2.93 -1.62 t516 286.9 3.14 -2.24 in black: MPI-ESM-LR historical, CMIP5 ECS: 3.63 K 11 year running means of temp2 piControl drift removed offsets removed, so all curves start at 286.7 K Rotstayn et al. (2015): temperature change 1850 → 2000 and TOA ERF correlate (based on 14 CMIP5 models) (our models fit the plot nicely)

Summary/Outlook Reasonable overall climate (piControl & historical; ENSO, sea ice, drift, global means...) ~5 reasonable tunings/worlds for MPI-ESM1.0-HAM MPI-ESM1.0-HAM Planned paper on model tuning MPI-ESM1.2-HAM BACCHUS CMIP6/AerChemMIP