Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhD Cybergenetics, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

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Presentation transcript:

Profiles in Productivity: Greater Yield at Lower Cost with Computer DNA Interpretation Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhD Cybergenetics, Pittsburgh, PA, USA Barry W Duceman, PhD New York State Police, Albany, NY, USA Australia and New Zealand Forensic Science Society September, 2010 Cybergenetics © 2003-2010 Cybergenetics © 2007-2010

Crushing Weight of Evidence … DNA quantity property crime, touch, … DNA quality mixed, degraded, low level, … DNA problems backlogs, low information yield … a long wait for evidence

TrueAllele® Casework Computer interpretation of DNA evidence by mathematically modeling STR process Primary goals • objectivity • ease of use • information • productivity

Objectivity - inherent DNA evidence data DNA evidence genotype interpret Only crime scene DNA evidence, no suspect information

Objectivity - inherent suspect genotype DNA evidence data DNA evidence genotype DNA match score interpret match population genotype Objective computer interpretation of quantitative DNA evidence

Ease of Use - ask questions Evidence Evidence Suspect Suspect

Ease of Use - get answers

Genotype

Explain Reasoning 62% 11, 12 38% 12, 13 D13S317

Explain Reasoning 62% 11, 12 38% 12, 13 D13S317 Data Model

Report suspect ethnic groups elimination

Report statement loci likelihood ratio genotype

Mixture Validation Study 368 total evidence items (Epi & Spm = 2 items) 97 Reference Samples 25 Vaginal, Anal, or Penile Swabs 39 Semen Stains 13 Clothing or Bedding 11 Weapons 69 Bloodstains 9 Fingernail Scrapings 8 Dried Secretions 32 Misc (cigarette, condom, hair, bite marks, etc.)

Information - reproducibility 0.036

Information - one unknown 17.33 4.67 12.66

Information - two unknown 13.26 6.24 7.03

Information - all mixtures

Productivity - item yield

Data Classification Mixture items assigned a degree of difficulty Simple: two person mixture with a known victim Medium: two unknown mixture samples Complex: three or more unknown contributors, or a partial profile

Productivity - extra effort Simple Medium Complex Total Number 35 20 33 88 computer log(LR) 16 13 12 14 human yield 49% 25% 21% 29% expected effort 2.1 4.0 4.7 3.4

Who Benefits? Probability in service to utility • Laboratory reduce costs, increase efficiency • Society reduce crime, increase safety

Conclusion DNA demand workload, complexity, … DNA capacity resources, analysts, … Automated computer interpretation • objectivity • ease of use • information • productivity

Acknowledgements Northeast Regional Forensics Institute Jamie Belrose New York State Police Melissa Lee Shannon Morris Elizabeth Staude Cybergenetics William Allan Meredith Clarke Matthew Legler Jessica Smith Cara Spencer JFS Manuscript, in press Perlin, M.W., Legler, M.M., Spencer, C.E., Smith, J.L., Allan, W.P., Belrose, J.L., and Duceman, B.W. "Validating TrueAllele® DNA Mixture Interpretation," 2011. http://www.cybgen.com/information/pub_a19.shtml