Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the U.S. Professor Sally M. Benson Department of Energy Resources Engineering Stanford, CA Hi everyone, My name is EJ and I am a graduate student here at ERE working with Sally. Today I will be talking about a project that we in collaboration with some other people in university conducted on the near-term potential for carbon negative bioenergy in the U.S. CMI Meeting April, 2018 Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the United States, Ejeong BAIK, Daniel L. SANCHEZ, Peter A. TURNER, Katharine J. MACH, Christopher B. FIELD, Sally M. BENSON, PNAS, 2018. Near-term Potential for Carbon-Negative Bioenergy in the United States and Pathways of Meeting the Potential, Ejeong BAIK, Daniel L. SANCHEZ, Peter A. TURNER, Katharine J. MACH, Christopher B. FIELD, Sally M. BENSON, International Conference on CO2 Negative Emissions, May 22-24, 2018.

Takeaways Near-term BECCS potential limited by transportation (~ co-location of resources) Approximately 30% of the biomass potential in the U.S. overlaps with a storage site Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.: 100-110 Mt CO2/yr in 2020 360-630 Mt CO2/yr in 2040 BECCS potential is widespread Small scale of typical transportation-limited BECCS lacks economies of scale Helps define the near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment

Components of BECCS Biomass Transport (Biomass) Capture Transport (CO2) Storage Energy

This study

Distribution of biomass production per county in 2020 1. Biomass availability Distribution of biomass production per county in 2020 This is a map showing the distribution of biomass and geologic storage sites, as well as exiting CO2 pipeline in the US WE use biomass data from the US DOE Billion Ton Study and Storage Site Data from the USGS national assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources Biomass production density is by county- and you can see here that it is heavily skewed to below 0.1 Mt of biomass a year per county This translates to a total CO2 content of ~370-400 in 202 and 1040-1780 in 2040. The USGS estimated aggregated storage capacity is approximately ~3000 Gt CO2 per year Aggregate storage capacity is likely not a problem and this is a conclusion that several other studies have come to.. Biomass Data: U.S. DOE Billion Ton Study

1. Biomass availability 2020 Projection 2040 Projection Biomass (~370-400 Mt CO2/yr) 2040 Projection This is a map showing the distribution of biomass and geologic storage sites, as well as exiting CO2 pipeline in the US WE use biomass data from the US DOE Billion Ton Study and Storage Site Data from the USGS national assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources Biomass production density is by county- and you can see here that it is heavily skewed to below 0.1 Mt of biomass a year per county This translates to a total CO2 content of ~370-400 in 202 and 1040-1780 in 2040. The USGS estimated aggregated storage capacity is approximately ~3000 Gt CO2 per year Aggregate storage capacity is likely not a problem and this is a conclusion that several other studies have come to.. Biomass (~1040-1780 Mt CO2/yr)

2. Storage capacity varies widely Storage Site Data: USGS National Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Estimated aggregate storage capacity: Aggregate storage capacity is not likely a limiting factor for BECCS deployment Regional storage capacities vary widely ~3,000 Gt CO2

2. Storage Capacity is Large Compared to BECCS Potential

3. Injectivity varies widely Low injectivity indicates higher risks of pressure buildup and leakage Calculate storage injectivity given porosity, permeability, and depth of each storage site Regional injectivity widely varies

Combine components

Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S. >1,000 counties Negative Emissions Potential [Mt CO2/yr] 2020 2040 Total 370-400 1,040-1,780 with co-located storage 110-120 400-680 with sufficient storage capacity and injectivity 100-110 360-630 What we’ve done here is show the co-located biomass and storage sites-in other words, the areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment b/c of the presence of both biomass and storage sites, without the need of transportation infrastructure. About a third of the biomass producing counties were also co-located with a storage site, which translates to about 1000 counties. If the total available was ~370-400 Mt CO2/yr, there are only 110-120 Mt CO2/yr that are co-located with a storage site, and ifw e also consider biomass that overlays only suitable storage sites, we see that the total engative emissions potetnail in 2020 are 100-110 Mt CO2 yr BECCS in Highest 200 production counties -> negative emissions potential of approximately 50 Mt CO2 /yr

Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S. Cumulative CO2 from biomass from counties in 2020 and 2040 What we’ve done here is show the co-located biomass and storage sites-in other words, the areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment b/c of the presence of both biomass and storage sites, without the need of transportation infrastructure. About a third of the biomass producing counties were also co-located with a storage site, which translates to about 1000 counties. If the total available was ~370-400 Mt CO2/yr, there are only 110-120 Mt CO2/yr that are co-located with a storage site, and ifw e also consider biomass that overlays only suitable storage sites, we see that the total engative emissions potetnail in 2020 are 100-110 Mt CO2 yr BECCS in Highest 200 production counties -> negative emissions potential of approximately 50 Mt CO2 /yr

Comparison with integrated assessment models BECCS [Gt CO2/yr] *Taken from Peters and Geden (2017) Negative Emissions Potential [Mt CO2/yr] 2020 2040 Total 370-400 1,040-1,780 with co-located storage 110-120 400-680 with sufficient storage capacity and injectivity 100-110 360-630 Without Energy Crops 2040 Negative Emissions Potential: 104-111 Mt CO2/yr

Power Generation Potential With BECCS Current U.S. biomass electricity generation: ~0.2 EJ >1,000 counties 2020 2040 Negative Emissions Potential [Mt CO2/yr] 100-110 360-630 Corresponding Energy [EJ] 0.3 1-2 Corresponding Capacity [GW] 10-12 40-70 We briefly discuss the implications of trying to meet all the negative emissions potential. We look at the corresponding energy and capacity of that negative emissions potential. The total negative emissions potential of 100-110 Mt CO2/yr translates to 0.3 EJ in energy and 10-12 GW for generating capacity. Given that current U.S> biomass generation is aobout 0.2 EJ, capturing all the potential would imply more than doubling the electricity generated from biomass in the U.S> by 2020, andincrease almost tenfold by 2040. Furthermore, given that we are considering a transportation constrained world, if we assume a BECCS powerplant in each county of co-located biomass and storage site, half of the power plants would have a capacity of less than 12 MW, and we would have to install more than a 1000 power plants, which is a significant investment. Based on this map, we also highlight areas of high biomass production and suitable storage to highlight areas that would be the most suitable for near-term BECCS deployment. Those three areas are the Gulf region, Illionis Basin, and Western North Dakota. The BECCS demonstration project is in the Illinois basin, and there is also another BECCS project in prepration in western North Dakota, showing that are results are cosnsitent or reflective of the real opportunities that exisit. Going beyond discussing potential, studies like this can help define the enxt steps of achiveng that potential. And help inform near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment. Currently in the U.S.: 11 GW capacity of biomass electricity approximately 300 biomass power plants with a median capacity of 23 MW BECCS power plant capacity [MW] 0.1 12 29 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile

Local Transportation Option: ~50 Mile Radius 2020 BECCS Potential 6500 mi2 collection area 100 Mt/yr potential in 2020 231 projects Mean power plant size: 105 MW (range of 1 to 240 MW ) Mean emissions per project: 0.5 Mt/yr 236 injection wells needed

Conclusion Approximately 30% of the biomass potential in the U.S. is overlapping with a storage site Resulting negative emissions potential in the U.S.: 100-110 Mt CO2/yr in 2020 360-630 Mt CO2/yr in 2040 BECCS potential is widespread Helps define the near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment