Zero Rates, No Inflation and Other Extremes

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Presentation transcript:

Zero Rates, No Inflation and Other Extremes It’s Not That 70s Show Zero Rates, No Inflation and Other Extremes Stephen Gallagher Director of Research SG-AMER March 15, 2016

Misery Index – well below 70s peaks Source: Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

US Inflation Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

Fed Funds Rate Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

US Unemployment Rate Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

Real US GDP Growth Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

… an aging business cycle Business Cycle Duration in Months   Since 1854 Since 1949 Average Expansion Length 38.7 58.4 Average Contraction Length 17.5 11.1   Months Current Expansion starting in June 2009 81 By Dec 2016 91 By Dec 2017 103 By May 2019 120 Longest Expansion (Ending Mar 2001) Second Longest (Ending Dec 1969) 106 Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research, SG Cross Asset Research

Global 10-Yr Yields– sub-zero race Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data, Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

Labor Productivity Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

Real US Import & Export as % of GDP Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

China GDP as % of World GDP Source: The World Bank, Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

Wealth Disparity – The very rich are richer Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) , Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data

Real crude Oil Price—benefit or curse Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, The National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics, FactSet, SG Cross Asset Research Real Price Base = January 2016

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