MESOSCALE MODEL APPLICATIONS TO IMPROVE

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Presentation transcript:

MESOSCALE MODEL APPLICATIONS TO IMPROVE PREDICTIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA L.M. FARFÁN • Significant weather events in the gulf during the warm season • Network of routine observations in northwestern Mexico • Detection of gulf surge and operational model representation • CICESE’s contribution to NAME in 2004: 1) Mesoscale model simulations (research mode) 2) Study oceanic processes on SST evolution (field experiment)

NORA, 1997 JULIETTE, 2001 IGNACIO, 2003 MARTY, 2003

Surface station reports: 29 August – 01 September, 2002 • surface airways • synoptic sites • ships and bouys

Network of surface and upper-air stations 200 km Surface airways (12) Automatic sites (13) Upper-air soundings (2) 1,100 km

Upper-air and surface, automatic stations (EMAS) Comisión Nacional del Agua / Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Eta model, vertical cross section of horizontal winds Sierra Madre Pacific Baja California gulf

3.3-km spatial resolution grid (94x88) La Paz (CNA/SMN) Desert  Water  City Forests Cd. Constitución (automatic) CIBNOR/SDSU La Paz (MMLP) San José (MMSD) Cabo San Lucas (automatic)

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Proposed oceanographic cruises during NAME (Douglas, M. et al. 2003) 1) Improved understanding of SST spatial and temporal distribution 2) Observed evolution of marine boundary layer in significant events 3) Better initialization and assimilation of model fields at low-levels

L.M. Farfán (farfan@cicese.mx) MESOSCALE MODEL APPLICATIONS TO IMPROVE PREDICTIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA L.M. Farfán (farfan@cicese.mx) SUMMARY • Continental MCSs and tropical cyclones are significant sources of events • Surface and upper-air network provide data along coastal areas • CICESE’s contribution to NAME: a) mesoscale modeling studies for relevant case studies b) study of the oceanic processes on SST evolution • Expected results include: 1) Improved distribution of SST in time and space 2) Observed evolution of marine boundary layer in significant events 3) Better initialization and assimilation of model fields at low-levels