Disintegration and Integration The Systems Science of Disintegration and Integration Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D. International Environment Forum (IEF)‏ https://iefworld.org International Environment Forum 21st International Conference with the Justice Conference de Poort, The Netherlands 14 April 2017

What is integration? making whole or entire to unite into a perfect whole harmony with one’s environment static or dynamic? does any whole last forever? ultimate disintegration

Cycles of integration and disintegration stars born and die our body grows and deteriorates religions are born and decline civilizations rise and fall

Qualities What are qualities of a young integrating system versus an old disintegrating one? flexibility/rigidity innovation/resistance to change diversify/reject differences

Characteristics of integration high diversity and specialization of functions cooperation, symbiosis and complementarity inclusiveness efficiency of exchanges, communications and networking increasing capital stock, economy in resource use, efficient cycling, little waste high energy capture and effective use of flow through system

What causes disintegration? Internal causes: imbalances escaping from homeostatic mechanisms failures in resilience rigidity and overspecialization inadequate diversity leading to instability accumulation of disfunctions with age

What causes disintegration? External causes: changing environmental conditions beyond limits sudden shocks or damaging events competition from a more dominant system conditions creating new potentials for which system not well adapted

Disintegration a civilization or empire depends on social cohesion (indicator: collective violence) population growth and new technology generate wealth for elite → oversupply of labour increases poverty → concentration of wealth → factionalism → anarchy → collapse → restart (200 year cycle) predicted political instability/impending crisis in Western Europe and US peaking 2020 need to reduce social inequality Turchin, Peter, 2010. Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. Nature, vol. 463, Issue 7281, p. 608. (4 February 2010). doi:10.1038/463608a Turchin, Peter, 2010. Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. Nature, vol. 463, Issue 7281, p. 608. (4 February 2010). doi:10.1038/463608a cited in Holmes, Bob, 2012, Revolutionary Cycles, New Scientist,18 August 2012, p. 46-49 Turchin, Peter. 2006. War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires. Plume Books (Penguin), London. 405 p.

Punctuated equilibrium Complex systems do not usually follow a smooth evolutionary curve towards greater integration and complexity, but experience what is called a punctuated equilibrium, with periods of stability interrupted by times of rapid change with bursts of creativity and reorganization

Punctuated equilibrium

Evolutionary progression Dominant entities like the dinosaurs that have over-specialized and have lost the capacity to adapt die out, to be replaced by entities capable of rapid change and with new potentials for increased efficiency and integration (think early mammals) No complex system lasts for ever; they ultimately break down to make way for a new cycle (stars, civilizations)

Human social systems cooperation more efficient than competition Nowak, Martin A., with Roger Highfield. 2011. SuperCooperators: Altruism, Evolution, and Why We Need Each Other to Succeed. New York: Free Press internal control by ethics and values more efficient than laws and regulations reward more effective than punishment Nowak, Martin A., with Roger Highfield. 2011. SuperCooperators: Altruism, Evolution, and Why We Need Each Other to Succeed. New York: Free Press. 330 p.

Religion and integration Recent research suggests that higher levels of human organization can only be explained by the ethical principles of religion. Turchin, Peter. 2016. Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Chaplin, Connecticut: Beresta Books. New values are the catalyst for a new cycle of integration Turchin, Peter. 2016. Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Chaplin, Connecticut: Beresta Books.

What we need now The present time with accelerating disintegration of the old system and embryonic development of the new more integrated system (planetary civilization) would call for learning communities accustomed to a culture of change and founded on strong spiritual principles.