TOPIC 1:TECTONIC PROCESSES AND HAZARDS (Lesson 14 Part b )

If it happens, it happens, and it’s all part of living in this area. FATALISTIC APPROACH

“Russian Roulette Reaction”- an optimistic approach. Some communities would go as far as to say hazards are “God’s will”. Populations take direct action that is concerned with safety. Losses are accepted as inevitable. People remain where they are. Lack of alternatives- often economically orientated. FATALISTIC APPROACH

Hazards are a part of everyday life that we try and live with Hazards are a part of everyday life that we try and live with. We know hazards happen but we continue to live in this area because it has many advantages. ACCEPTANCE APPROACH

California- is it worth the risk?? Accept the risks that hazards present because the advantages are greater. Costs versus benefits. Tourism. Energy generation. Opportunity for intensive agriculture. Mining and mineral extraction. ACCEPTANCE APPROACH California- is it worth the risk??

People living with a volcano Despite all the dangers, people still elect to live in close proximity to volcanoes e.g. Vesuvius (Naples)

There is a complex relationship between risk, hazards and people which is due to several factors: 1.Unpredictability 2. Lack of alternatives (people caught out by either timing/ ( people may stay due to economic 3. Dynamic magnitude e.g Italian earthquake reasons/ lack of knowledge etc) Hazards Aug 24th 2016) ( the threat from hazards is not a constant one – it may increase/ decrease over time. Human influence is also important) UNDERSTANDING RISK 4.Cost – Benefit 5. Russian – Roulette Reaction ( benefits of a hazardous (The acceptance of risks as location may well outweigh something that will happen the risks involved in staying there. whatever you do, that is , one PERCEPTION of risk may also of FATALISM ) Play an important role here) Cost- benefit ‘Russian Roulette reaction’

The risk – perception process model WHAT DO YOU THINK THE TERM ‘THRESHOLD’ MEANS? ‘Threshold is the point at which you start to experience something or at which something starts to happen’ ( Cambridge English Dictionary)

See fig 2.2 p.16 ‘ The risk- perception process’ Fig 2.2 shows that when there is increasing stress from natural hazards, there may come a point when the population or community has to ‘adjust.’ The balance between absorption and adjustment will vary according to the type of hazard as well as the attitudes of the decision makers.

WHITEBOARDS/PAIRED WORK Based on the knowledge you have gained so far… What factors do you think make up the ‘Hazard risk equation?’ 3 mins

**The Hazard Risk Equation** ( LEARN THIS!) This equation attempts to capture the various components that influence the amount of risk that a hazard may produce for a community or population: Risk (R) = hazard(H) x exposure (E) x vulnerability(V) manageability/ ‘capacity to cope’ (C)

WHITEBOARDS/PAIRED WORK WHAT IS AN AGEING POPUATION? WHY DO YOU THINK THAT AGE IS IMPORTANT WHEN CONSIDERING PEOPLES’ RESILIENCE?

Do you know anyone who is one hundred years old or older? An Ageing world Do you know anyone who is one hundred years old or older?

My Grandad has just reached the age of 104! ‘Blitz firefighter celebrates his hundredth birthday’ (Photo from Birmingham post October 2012- Dennis Bick- google him!!!)

What is an Ageing population? A population in which the proportion of older people (retired +65yrs ) is increasing. When a population has more than 7 % in 65+ age group, it is an ageing one In 2005, 16% of the UK was over 65 %. By 2041 predictions suggest it could be 25%

How long can we expect to live? Map from CIA world factbook/wikimedia commons Map Showing Life Expectancy Which continent has the lowest life expectancy? AFRICA Examples of countries which have life expectancy over 60 yrs? CHINA, INDIA, BRAZIL, INDONESIA,UK, FRANCE, SPAIN, JAPAN, SWEDEN, AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND , ICELAND……..

So the elderly are very vulnerable in tectonically hazardous regions…….

Children are also very vulnerable in hazard situations….

Disaster Risk and Age Index This highlights two important trends: 1. Ageing populations 2. The acceleration of risk in a world that is increasingly exposed to a range of hazard types. Age is a significant factor in peoples’ resilience, with children and the elderly likely to suffer much more from a range of hazards, including those of a tectonic origin. Around 66% of the world’s population aged 60 or over live in less- developed regions. By 2050 this is expected to rise by 79%..... http://www.helpage.org/what-we-do/climate-change/disaster-risk-and-age-index/

TASK: Compare Myanmar and Japan (ref: Fig 2.4 p.16 Hodder)

Geographical location of Myanmar( ‘Burma’) and Japan

TASK: Compare Myanmar and Japan Look at the diagrams on fig 2.4 page 16 (Hodder) and table 2.1 on page 17. Describe and explain the differences between Myanmar and Japan in terms of their: Hazard and exposure score Vulnerability Coping Capacity Overall risk

E.G Japan: March 11th earthquake and tsunami Older people in Japan are still relatively vulnerable to hazards e.g. 15,000 people were killed and 9,500 either missing/ injured but 56% of those who died were 65yr or over (even though this age group comprised just 23% of the population in the area affected.) This was because it was cold wintry weather- many were wearing heavy coats and couldn’t swim fast enough as a result……………..

Deaths in Japan : Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Deaths in the Indian Ocean Deaths in Japan : Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima BBC Children: >30% of deaths Four times as many females than males died (Oxfam) 60+ years: 65% of deaths Male deaths: 6,000 Female deaths: 7,000

Summary of Disaster Age Index So this index (developed by the UNISDR) is a way of signalling how AGE should be an important factor in understanding both vulnerability and the coping capacity of the older generation.

Living with tectonic hazards: improving community resilience An estimated 500 MILLION people live in volcanic areas ( because they are attracted by the mineral resources, including fertile soils, tourist income and geothermal energy. They are therefore constantly AT RISK from volcanic eruptions. As such VULNERABILITY is increasing in these areas. If people are to live with tectonic hazards then improvements are needed to IMPROVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE i.e. their ability to withstand a natural event so that it does not become a hazard or a disaster.

RISK REDUCTION = MITIGATION OF HAZARD x REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY INCREASE COPING CAPACITY/ RESILIENCE ‘Mitigation’ means finding ways of being PREPARED for possible tectonic hazards so that their impacts can be prevented or reduced. How can this be done? Management policies, strategies and actions are needed by governments to minimise vulnerability and reduce disaster risk for all in a community or society. ‘The better the strategies and organisation the greater the capacity to reduce risk’….. Individuals or communities may lack the capacity to make significant improvements on their own so only BETTER GOVERNANCE can ultimately help to reduce vulnerability.

Have we achieved our lesson objectives?: To know the difference between a hazard and a disaster To understand the concepts of vulnerability, resilience and risk To have knowledge of Degg’s Model To understand the ‘hazard risk equation’ To understand the ‘Disaster Risk and Age Index’.