2017 Regional Economic Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

2017 Regional Economic Outlook Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist Grant.Forsyth@avistacorp.com

Population Growth, 2014-2016 2017: 1% Bonner Benewah Shoshone Lincoln Pend Oreille Stevens Source: Census and author’s calculations.

Contribution of In-migration to Population Change, 2010-2015 Source: Census and author’s calculations.

Spokane and Kootenai Age Distribution, 2015 Source: Census and author’s calculations.

Washington Side Age Distribution, 2015 “Maturity Peaks” “Youth Valleys” Source: Census and author’s calculations.

Idaho Side Age Distribution, 2015 Source: Census and author’s calculations.

Decline in Productivity Growth The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity, by Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell. NBER Working Paper No. 22452, July 2016 Decline in Productivity Growth Aging Population: Share of Population 60+ Years Lower Growth in Per Capita GDP Decline in Employment Participation

Non-Farm Employment Growth, 2014-2016 2017: 1.5-2% Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Regional Average Annual Employment Growth for 22 Counties, 2010-2015 Expansion Annual % 2002-2007 1.8% 2010-2015 0.9% Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Initial Unemployment Claims (SA), 2004-2016 2016 Unemployment Rate Spokane 6.7% Kootenai 4.7% Source: WA and ID ESD and author’s calculations.

Spokane+Kootenai Residential Building Permits, 2014-2016 Up by 1,833 units (+50%) Unit Growth (Share) by Type Single, Condo, Duplex +26% (57%) Apartments +98% (43%) Source: Construction Monitor and author’s calculations.

Existing Home Prices, 2014-2016 2017: 4-5% 2017: 6-7% Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

Spokane Existing Home Prices: What if? Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

Kootenai Existing Home Prices: What if? Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

CPI Less Shelter, Avg. Annual Growth U.S. Urban Rent Growth, 2013-2017 Period CPI Less Shelter, Avg. Annual Growth 2013-2016 0.2% Vancouver BC market: CBC interview with Professor Tom Davidoff in August (August 18, 2016) found that rental units turning over for new renters are seeing rents increase about 20% this year at lower-end rentals and 8% at the higher-end rentals. Source: Bloomberg, The Cities Where Rent Is Rising the Fastest, October, 7, 2016.

Taxable Sales, 2013-2016 Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

Share of Motor Vehicle and Parts Sales to Total Retail Sales, 2004-2016 Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

E-Commerce and Mail Order Taxable Sales, 2004-2015 Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

Thank You