Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends: Implications for Meeting the Needs of a Technology Driven Economy Texas Association of State Systems for Computing and Communications (TASSCC) November 17, 2011 Austin, TX Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 Population* 2010 Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009 Percent Change Due to Year* Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product 1970-2010

Texas Total Nonfarm Employment Quarterly Growth

Texas High Tech Manufacturing Employment

Texas High Tech Services Employment

Texas GDP by Year for the Information Industry About 4% of Texas total GDP in 2010 U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate

Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009 Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent). Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by White, Non-Hispanic, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Total Population by County, 2010 The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010 Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a ten year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount. The State of Texas grew by 20.6% between 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher, 2004-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2006-2009

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with Bachelors degree or higher, 2004-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2004-2009

Percent of the population, aged 5 years and over, who speak Spanish at home, 2009 Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2006-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2006-2009

Comparisons of home computer and internet access by sex, U.S., 2009 Manjarrez and Schoembs. “Who’s in the Queue? A Demographic Analysis of Public Access Computer Users and Uses in U.S. Public Librarie,s”Research Brief No. 4, June 2011, Institute of Museum and Library Services

Comparisons of home computer and internet access by Race and Ethnicity, U.S., 2009 Manjarrez and Schoembs. “Who’s in the Queue? A Demographic Analysis of Public Access Computer Users and Uses in U.S. Public Librarie,s”Research Brief No. 4, June 2011, Institute of Museum and Library Services

Comparisons of home computer and internet access by poverty status, 2009 Manjarrez and Schoembs. “Who’s in the Queue? A Demographic Analysis of Public Access Computer Users and Uses in U.S. Public Librarie,s”Research Brief No. 4, June 2011, Institute of Museum and Library Services

Percent of People Who Use the Internet at Any Location, Selected States: 2010 Source: Current Population Survey

75 years and over 15 to 19 years of age Time spent reading for personal interest and playing games or using a computer for leisure 75 years and over averaged 1.1 hours of reading per weekend day 18 minutes playing games or using a computer for leisure 15 to 19 years of age averaged of 6 minutes of reading per weekend day 1.1 hours playing games or using a computer for leisure Source: American Time Use Survey -- 2010

Computer Use Among 5-8 Year-Olds, 2011 percent who use a computer Source: Common Sense Media. Zero to Eight: Children’s Media Use in America, 2011

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ 1990-2000 scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The 2000-2004 and 2000-2007 scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow. Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Projected population by county, Texas, 2040 Texas State Data Center projections indicate that the most significant growth will continue to occur in the major metropolitan areas and along the southern border area. Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).

Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040 The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will continue to lose population.

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040 The 2000-2007 migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009 Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Demographics and Destiny Texas is growing – with more people being added over the decade than in any other state we added 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress. Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population. This increasing diversity means that as agencies and organizations develop technology and information interfaces for the public, they will need to ensure that information is accessible to the largest number of potential as possible. The technology and information sectors are experiencing healthy growth in Texas. As these sectors grow, they will require an educated and skilled labor force. One of our challenges in Texas is to ensure that our education system enables our young people to gain the knowledge and skills they’ll need to fill the jobs created by these sectors. Part of the reason these sectors are growing is because more and more people turn to computers and the internet every day for information and for conducting business. With the growth of Texas’ population we can expect increased demand for technology and information from a growing percentage of a growing population. Agencies and organizations will increasingly need to meet the publics demand for information and the ability to conduct online business or they will find themselves to be unresponsive, underutilized, and perhaps obsolete.

Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.