Stat 217 - Introduction to Statistical Concepts and Methods Introductions

Syllabus Notes Please bring text (or relevant pages) and calculator to every class HW assignments generally due on Tuesdays Will also be collecting in-class work (credit for participating, providing feedback) Tuesdays and Thursdays will meet in computer lab Expected to bring USB drive to complete work outside of class (Thursdays) Blackboard Lecture Notes page

Calendars Last page of syllabus Calendar/Lecture Notes page

Syllabus Notes, cont. Graded work Getting help In Class Activities Weekly homeworks (individual write-ups) One free drop Weekly lab assignments (with partner) Pre-lab assignments Start in lab and finish outside of class Two exams, cumulative final (mon or wed) Getting help Office hours Email (me, course listserv) Discussion Boards in Blackboard Stat Club free tutoring

Office Hours

Why should I take Stat 217?

What is Stat 217 all about? Roper Poll: Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the … never happened 22% said “it seemed possible” that it never happened Gallup Poll: … did the Holocaust: definitely happen, probably happen, probably not happen, or definitely not happen? “One in five people in the United States is open to the idea that the Holocaust is a myth.” – USA Today 83% said the Holocaust definitely happened 13% said it probably happened “Figure one out of five Americans could be willfully stupid” –San Francisco Examiner

What should I take Stat 217? a Washington Post-ABC News poll indicates a Washington Post-ABC News survey

Why should I take Stat 217? Parade Magazine, 9/20/2009

What is this course about and why do I have to take it? “Did you know that in just 6 weeks Cheerios can reduce bad cholesterol by an average of 4 percent? Cheerios is the only leading cold cereal clinically proven to lower cholesterol. A clinical study showed that eating two 1½ cup servings daily of Cheerios cereal reduced bad cholesterol when eaten as part of a diet low in saturated fat and cholesterol1 link 1Johnston L, et al. cholesterol-lowering benefits of a whole grain oat ready-to-eat cereal. Nutr Clin Care, 1998; 1-6, 12.

Why should I take Stat 217? Parade Magazine, 1/3/2010

What will you learn in this class? Determine reasonable ways to collect data Make sense of numbers Evaluate claims Make comparisons Draw conclusions Support arguments Monitor trends

What you will be asked to do Interpret, explain, justify, communicate Use algebra and computer as tools Practice developing and using tools Try things on your own Work together Ask questions

What you will not be asked to do Memorize formulas Manipulate equations without understanding where they came from, what they mean, or why they are used Repeat back what I say to you Model: learning a foreign language

Advice Actively participate Work together Ask questions Review along the way Start assignments early Take the course seriously Have fun! Think!

P. 3, Preliminary 2 Telephone companies constantly collect data on cell phone calls in an effort to detect anomalies that might indicate fraud. What information should you record about each cell phone call, in order to develop a profile for the cell phone owner so that you could then monitor calls for anomalies?

Definitions (p. 4, 5) Data = numbers in a context Variable = any characteristic of a person or thing that can be assigned a number of category Observational unit = the person or thing being measured Variability = variables take on different values from observational unit to observational unit

Activity 1-3 (p. 6) For each cell phone call, the researchers recorded information on its direction (incoming or outgoing), location (local or roaming), duration, time of day, day of week, and whether the call took place on a weekend or weekday. (a) Observational units (b) Categorical variables, binary (c) Quantitative variables

Continuation What percentage of the class has used their phone today? Obs units? Variable? Any measurement issues? Other variables? Research questions What conclusions would you like to draw? What are some comparisons you would like to make between groups of students in this class?

Activity 1-2 (p. 6) Obs units = 50 states Gender of state’s governor Number of states that have a female governor Percentage of the state’s residents older than 65 Highest speed limit in the state Whether or not the state’s name contains one word Average income of the adult residents of the state How many states were settled before 1865

Coming up this week Topics 1, 3 Lots of terminology Review 1-1, 1-4, 1-6 (solutions under “Toolkit”) Begin class with review/questions Lots of terminology Very critical for rest of term Practice, practice, practice Issues in collecting data and drawing conclusions from a study What population can I generalize the results to? Would it be reasonable to say a change in one variable is causing a change in the other variable? HW 1

Introductions