Impact Based Forecast and Warnings in Curacao Watching the weather to protect life and property Albert Martis Director

Early Warning System 1. Detection and Monitoring Hazards and Risks 2. Production of Bulletins 3. Dissemination Response or Action 4. Monitoring Hazards, Impact and information 5. Updating the Bulletins

EWS Tropical Storm Tomas Local Hazards and Impacts Winds : no Tropical storm force Winds Seas: Small craft advisory /high surf advisory Rainfall: heavy rainfall (50 -80 mm local flooding)

Impact Tropical Storm Tomas 250-300 mm in 7h Impact Tropical Storm Tomas

Warwaru (landspouts) Landspouts 1976: Curaçao 2004: Aruba 2008: Aruba Curacao (2x) Bonaire

Effectiveness EWS Understandable Reliable Timely Good coverage Mobile telephone (> 100%) Emergency radio TV and website Receiver can take responsible actions

2. Types of Bulletins Daily Forecasts Special Bulletins Tropical Cyclone Bulletins Climate Reports

Type of Hazards

Color Code Special Bulletins

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Ch

Bulletin Engine Automated

Bulletin Engine From 15 to 3 minites

Impact based Forecast and Warnings (WMO no. 1150) NMHSs produce reliable, accurate and timely warnings in support of safety of life, livelihood and property Yet, many people still die, losses continue to rise In part due to lack of understanding of impacts of hazards

Stakeholder Workshop in Curacao

Impact based Forecasts and Warnings “what the weather will do, not what the weather will be”.

Stakeholder IBFW Fire Department Port Authority Meteorological Department Insurance Company Red Cross Disaster Management Organization Public Works Ministry of Traffic and Communication

Plan of Actions WG IBFW Establishment of a National Working Group on Impact based Forecasts and Warnings (5,6 December 1st Meeting) Explore funding sources for implementing impact based forecasting including through public-private partnerships increasing the observational network (especially for waves),.

Terms of Reference WG IBFW Developing a national plan and an implementation plan for impact-based forecasting, based on the “WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services”, including the training requirements; • Further developing the impact-based forecasting products; Developing a database of high impact events using hazard/impact matrices and vulnerability information; Establishing systematic GIS hazard mapping and vulnerability data collection. MDC to establish partnerships with relevant Departments for mapping of hazards and vulnerability, and modelling of detailed risk maps (based on hazard maps and vulnerability maps); Organizing public education activities (taking into consideration materials already available from WMO).

Recommendation Production of Bulletins (reducing production time) - Forecast/ Nowcasting models - Forecast and Warnings Bulletins Engines Implementation Plan Impact based Forecast and Warnings