Indiana’s Agricultural Outlook 2010. Chris Hurt hurtc@purdue Indiana’s Agricultural Outlook 2010? Chris Hurt hurtc@purdue.edu Purdue University April 13, 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
USDA: ERS Feb 11, 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Adequate Old Crop Stocks Planted Acres up 2.3 Million = 88.8 Million With Normal Yields-Adequate Inventory for 2010/11 Lower Yields and/or stronger Usage needed to substantially Raise Prices Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
USDA January 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Corn: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Corn: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Million Bushels Carryin 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,674 1,899 Production 10,535 13,074 12,101 13,131 13,085 Total Supply 12,515 14,398 13,739 14,814 14,999 Feed & Residual 5,600 5,974 5,254 5,450 5,490 FSI Non-Fuel 1,371 1,338 1,276 1,265 1,280 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 2,115 3,026 3,677 4,300 4,450 Export 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,900 1,975 Total Use 11,211 12,774 12,065 12,915 13,195 Ending Stocks 1,804 US Farm Price $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.50-$3.70 $3.35-$4.15 $3.60 $3.75 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
BioFuels Production Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
July Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
December Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Aggressive Buying by China Huge South American Crop Large World Stocks Tight Old Crop Stocks Aggressive Buying by China Huge South American Crop Large World Stocks More U.S. Acres 647,000 to record high levels Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Soybeans:USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Soybeans:USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Million Bushels Carryin 449 574 205 138 190 Production 3,188 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,317 Total Supply 3,647 3,260 3,185 3,512 3,517 Seed & Residual 148 93 102 147 175 Crush 1,806 1,801 1,662 1,730 1,750 Exports 1,118 1,161 1,283 1,445 1,395 Total Use 3,074 3,055 3,047 3,322 3,320 Ending Stock 197 Farm Price $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.20-$9.70 $8.25-$10.25 $9.45 $9.25 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
July Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
November Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
World stocks in surplus as well Much less acres in the U.S. U.S Stocks Very High World stocks in surplus as well Much less acres in the U.S. Lowest Indiana Acres on RECORD Prices in the low $4.00 to $4.50 for Indiana Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Wheat: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 09/11 Wheat: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 09/11 Million Bushels Carryin 571 456 306 657 950 Production 1,812 2,067 2,499 2,216 1,951 Total Supply 2,505 2,635 2,932 2,988 3,013 Feed & Residual 125 30 260 180 220 Other Domestic 1,015 1,035 1,000 993 1,040 Exports 909 1,264 865 890 Total Use 2,049 2,329 2,275 2,038 2,150 End Stocks 863 Farm Price $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.85-4.95 $4.30 - $5.90 $4.90 $5.10 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
July Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Animal Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
-4% +3% -11% -8% Department of Agricultural Economics -4% +3% -11% -8% Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Choice Steer Prices and Per Capita Supplies Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Per Capita Supply & Live Hog Prices Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University November 18 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
Market prices 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Choice steers, Neb. $/cwt $85.41 $91.82 $92.27 $82.68 $93.00 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt $107.18 $108.23 $102.98 $99.20 $112.00 U.S. All Milk Price $12.88 $19.13 $18.32 $12.81 $15.70 Choice slaughter lambs $77.31 $84.93 $85.91 $90.50 $99.00 Barrows & gilts live/cwt. $47.26 $47.09 $47.84 $41.24 $53.00 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb $64.40 $76.40 $79.70 $77.60 $82.00 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb $77.00 $82.10 $87.50 $79.50 $84.00 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. $71.80 $114.40 $128.30 $103.00 $114.50 USDA: ERS Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University