Who Can, Will, and Should Protect Nature? With thanks to Kate O’Neill of UC-Berkeley for much of this lecture’s thinking

Who protects nature? International cooperation is usually assumed to be answer but … Efforts to protect the environment take several forms Social and technological infrastructure Governance Regulation Participatory activism

Non-state actor involvement in various types of solutions Treaties NGO-Governmental agreements Business-government agreements Corporations & corporate associations Public-private regulatory projects Non-governmental organizations Networks, alliances, coalitions Green parties Social movements

NGOs Resources- formal and informal Transnational issue networks Small staff and resources No legal, economic or physical force No military or physical force No official mandate or standing Views and norms do not reflect norms of all of global society Information as important resource Mostly claim moral vs. expert (scientific), legal (government), material (corporate) authority Southern NGOs Backlash NGOs Transnational issue networks Tactics

Multinational Corporations (MNCs) Extremely powerful and influential in civil society Greening of business Exporting environmentalism (Garcia-Johnson) Emergence in IEP Private regimes Identifying "markets" in which make money by protecting the environment

Global Civil Society Definition: Examples "domain of associational life situated above the individual and below the state" but across state boundaries and which results "in a sense of allegiance and societal norms" that influences "the way public issues are addressed … [and as such] plays a role in governing the world polity“ Examples Civil society as alternative to government Governs behavior in several ways

Some thoughts on final paper

Possible Comparison #1: Members/Non-members Members (regulated actors) to non-members (non-regulated actors), Members vs. non-members after treaty Treaty members before/after treaty starts

Possible Comparison #2: Regulated/Non-regulated Activity Members regulated activity to members non-regulated activity Catch of regulated yellowfin tuna vs. non-regulated bluefin tuna Sulfur dioxide pollution vs. carbon monoxide pollution

Possible Comparison #3: Regulated/Non-regulated Location Members in regulated location to members in non-regulated location Catch of yellowfin tuna in regulated area (Indian Ocean) vs. non-regulated area (Western Pacific) Pollution of regulated river vs. pollution of non-regulated river

Brief graphing overview to get final paper started

Pollution Example

Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force

Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 1: Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Members)

Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 1: Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Members)

Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 2: Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Non-Members)

Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force GOAL: Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve GOAL ACHIEVEMENT Failure relative to Goal

Pollution Example Treaty In Force GOAL ACHIEVEMENT Failure relative to Goal

Problems of graphing data and how to resolve them

Data Analysis Strategies, aka: “How to Drink from a Firehose” Determine ideal DV before looking at data Draw expected graph by hand: years, lines included, success example Identify best indicators you have available Compare regulated/non-regulated behavior Actors: Member/non-member Regulated countries vs. non-regulated countries Activity: Regulated/non-regulated activity E.g., regulated chemical/species vs. unregulated chemical/species Location: Regulated/non-regulated geographic area E.g., catch in North Pacific vs. South Pacific

Simplify your data!! DON’T USE ALL THE DATA YOU HAVE! Focus on most important indicators Focus on 15 years before / 15 years after Focus on countries most responsible Create columns for regulated/non-regulated Compare average of country groups No more than 6 lines on one graph Think about normalizing data across countries: Index // percent change // per GDP // per person Graph alternative explanations, e.g., price

Graphing without thinking: don’t know what you’re seeing Goal: See if treaties change country behavior over time Draw what you want by hand, then graph Country-groups, X-axis, Y-axis, expected lines Practice makes perfect – do it by hand again!

Graphing everything creates spaghetti Large countries swamp small Too much to understand Graph all; then delete one-by-one to learn about your data: major polluters, missing data, etc. Create groups of different type states Members vs. Non-members Developed vs. Developing members Green vs. Brown members Other categories theory suggests Make sure data isn’t messing you up

Graphing the raw data doesn’t make countries similar enough Solution 1: Indexing Concept: view each country’s behavior as % of its behavior in year treaty entered into force (EIF year) Doing it: copy of rectangle, but with formula that divides each country’s data in each year by that country’s data in the EIF year Solution 2: Normalizing Concept: view each country’s behavior after adjusting for population, GDP, or other variables Doing it: copy of rectangle, but with formula that divides each country’s DV by IV in each year