GIS BASED IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN CAPE A/Prof Marianne Vanderschuren Centre for Transport Studies University of Cape Town SATC, 10 July 2018

Content Road Fatality Rates in Africa Road Fatality Rates in South Africa Provincial comparison Population GDP Vehicle ownership Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures Conclusions and Recommendations

Road Fatality Rates in Africa Road Death Rate 2010: SA: 32.5 fatalities/100 000 pop Africa: 24 fatalities/100 000 pop Global: 17 fatalities/100 000 pop Source: Peden et al., 2013 Source: WHO, 2013

Road Fatality Rates in Africa Road death rate in cities: Some cities have extremely high fatality rates Population growth leads to an increase in fatality rates As cities grow and develop, lower speeds and road safety measures reduce fatalities Source: Vanderschuren and Zuidgeest, 2017 Source: Vanderschuren, Forthcoming

Road Fatality Rates in South Africa Road Death Rate 2010: SA: 32.5 fatalities/100 000 pop Africa: 24 fatalities/100 000 pop Global: 17 fatalities/100 000 pop Specific areas have very high absolute fatality rates or very high fatality rates per 100 000 pop Unpacking the details is required Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

Road Fatality Rates in South Africa - Population All SA provinces did have a population growth Provinces with a Metropolitan Area have the largest decrease in fatalities Source: Vanderschuren et al., 2017 – Based on RTMC Annual Report 2007-2013

Road Fatality Rates in South Africa – Car Ownership All SA provinces did have a vehicle ownership growth Provinces with a Metropolitan Area have the largest decrease in fatalities Source: Vanderschuren et al., 2017 – Based on RTMC Annual Report 2007-2013

Road Fatality Rates in South Africa - GDP As GDP grows, fatality rates increase. After a certain moment (breaking point), an increasing GDP develops a negative relationship with road fatalities Between 2005 - 2015 Source: Kopits, 2004 Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on RTMC Annual Report 2007-2013

Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – NHTS 2013 and iPAS Data for the WC 2011 - 2015

Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures Data for 2011-2015 A 100*100 metre ‘net’ was cast to find the Top-10 locations per district Dots indicate a weighting of the number of fatalities National roads still visible, but also other areas Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures Data for 2011-2015 A 100*100 metre ‘net’ was cast to find the Top-10 locations per district Dots indicate a weighting of the number of fatalities National roads still visible, but also other areas Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

Source: Vanderschuren et al Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures Identify ‘Top Hazardous’ locations Do in-depth analysis, include all records Identify cost effective engineering, enforcement, education and EMS measures IT can play an important role: Speed over distance Speed warning Data collection and recording Field Description Value Number of crashes 618 Number of fatal crashes 33 Number of fatalities 37 Number of injuries 943 Number of cyclist fatalities 1 Number of pedestrian fatalities 21 Number of pedestrian injuries 38 Percentage of fatal crashes during the day 40.5% Percentage of fatal crashes during dry conditions 81.2% Percentage of fatal crashes without any obstructions 51.5% Percentage of fatal crashes on a straight 84.8% Percentage of fatal crashes on part of the road with good road signage Percentage of fatal crashes due to risky or bad driver behaviour Percentage of speed during fatal crashes: 60km/h 80km/h 120km/h unknown   3% 3% 57.6% 36.4% Percentage of fatal crashes, due to other: drunk pedestrian + tyre burst 3% + 3% Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

Conclusions and Recommendations Road fatalities remain a burden for countries The total road fatality rates in South Africa decreased by 8.4% (2005-2015). However, the decrease was not common for all provinces Road fatalities have decreased while the population, GDP, GDP per capita and motorisation rates have increased Best performing province still needs to find ways to reduce road fatalities Great improvements in road safety in South Africa are required. Each province will require a tailor-made approach to improve its road safety levels. A pathway to achieve improvements would be to identify the top hazardous locations using GIS

Acknowledgements

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