Development of New Supply Models in Maryland Using Big Data Jonathan Avner, Scott Thompson-Graves and Ashley Tracy (WRA) Subrat Mahaptra, Mark Radovic (MDOT SHA) 15th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Raleigh, NC May 15, 2017

Agenda Challenge Project Options Evaluated Approach Findings

Challenge MDOT SHA is working on several fronts to improve the capabilities of its tools for addressing both traditional and non-traditional applications Trip Based Model Activity Based Model DTA Lite Agent Based Freight Model By having a suite of tools available, able to align the tool with the type of question being asked including Resolution or detail of the analysis Runtime Desired performance measures

Challenge Ability to develop accurate forecasts in highly congested areas The way the traditional volume delay functions treat congested condition is less than ideal Challenge in ability to model peak hour conditions that make sense

Project Can volume delay functions be developed: Requirements: Improve sensitivity in the model Preform better under high volume conditions providing more realistic speeds Provide better performance measures including delay and level of service that would more closely replicate observed system conditions Requirements: Be developed using data available from the Statewide Model, Centerline and Route datasets and count program which includes speeds at select locations

Project Create a methodology to clean data for use in development of free flow speeds and volume delay functions Use of the data to identify variations in behavior that warrant unique facility types in the model platforms Use of the detailed centerline attribute data to capture these behavioral differences in improved speed and capacity

Approach Data Collection MSTM Statewide Model Network Model Facility Type Model Number of Lanes Free Flow Speed and Hourly Per Lane Capacity Centerline Data Urban / Rural Designation Roadway Functional Class Number of Lanes ATR Data 15 minute counts by speed bin

Approach Leverage MDOT SHA’s own Big Data – ATR Data Observed travel speed by direction including volumes at 53 locations across the state Data provided by 15 minute interval for the month of September, 2015 Stations distributed by statewide model facility type: Freeways = 21 Expressways = 2 Arterials = 30 Stations distributed by urban / rural: Urban = 18 Rural = 29

Approach

Approach

Approach

Approach Data Cleaning Data Preparation Validate Speed, Capacity Logic Aggregate of 15 minute data to hour by station by direction for each day Identify data that was inconsistent Stations that included support facilities Inconsistent data Data Preparation Calculation of weighted hourly volume and observed speed Assignment of Free Flow Speed Assignment of Capacity Validate Speed, Capacity Logic Validate Volume Delay Functions

Approach Validate Speed Validate Capacity Volume Delay Functions Comparison of observed speed under low volume (uninterrupted) conditions to input speeds used in MSTM Validate Capacity Comparison of observed volume under high volume (interrupted) conditions to hourly capacity used in MSTM Volume Delay Functions Comparison of observed speed relationship using observed volumes to model delay functions

Data Preparation – Observed Volume and Speed For each hour Estimate of Flow (Veh/Hr/Ln) Estimate of Speed Data Volume by 5 mph Speed Bin

Data Preparation - Capacity For purposes of calculation volume to capacity ratio, assignment of capacity by station Relied upon MSTM Capacity by SWFT (Functional Class) and Area Type Future enhancement is to calculate capacity in MSTM using geometric data Compared observed flow to MSTM capacity SWFT Urban Suburban Rural Halo External Interstate 1 2350 2450 2400 Freeway 2 2200 2300 2250 Expressway 3 2150 Major Arterial 4 860 780 1300 Minor Arterial 5 750 650 1400 1350 Collector 6 700 Med Ramp 8 1100 1150 1200 1250 High Ramp 9 1700 1750 1800 Connector 11 9999

Data Preparation – Free Flow Speed Considered several approaches Posted Speed Model Free Flow Speed Observed Max Speed by Station

Observed Speed - Freeway MSTM assumes: Posted Speed + 7 Posted Min Max 55 (62) 64 71 60 (67) 60 69 65 (72) 73

Observed Speed - Expressway MSTM assumes: Posted Speed + 7 Posted Min Max 55 (62) 65 70

Observed Speed - Arterial Posted Min Max 30 (35) 45 46 35 (40) 42 44 40 (45) 49 53 45 (50) 59 50 (55) 61 55 (60) 68

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Plot of Speed vs. V/C Speed: because grouping of locations, normalized to percent of free flow (PFFSPD) Free Flow Speed based on observed speed by station Capacity: MSTM capacity Testing goodness of fit using %RMSE Observed vs Model VDF Consider urban vs rural sections Testing typical values of VDF for goodness of fit

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Reviewed data to ensure meet expected relationships Speed drop due to traffic delay Identified conditions of lower speed during low volume conditions

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Observation of decreasing speed under low V/C Silver Springs, MD on the Beltway

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Goodness of fit urban vs rural Locations of decreasing flow removed from curve testing

Diminishing Flow Conditions (Freeway)

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Isolation of point observations where speed is decreasing consistently with volume (before reaching capacity)

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Observed variation in response to V/C ratio Consistent area type Need to investigate location and roadway geometrics Classify model links to capture variation

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Arterial includes SWFT 4-6 (Arterial – Collector) Urban Suburban: issue with capacities and speeds Rural: several patterns

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Urban / Suburban MSTM capacities are low as observed conditions exceed capacity Rural Additional factors influencing volume delay

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Consistency with volume delay functions except at low volume conditions – variability of speed under uninterrupted conditions

Validation – Volume Delay Functions Overall Urban Rural Freeway – All Points 10.708 11.575 7.0618 Freeway – Pre Jam Density 7.0705 7.1023 6.9676 Expressway 9.5834 Arterial – All 6.93779 77.17075 6.00623 Major Arterial 6.84764 10.6736 6.34373 Minor Arterial 6.90378 8.48163 6.37677 Collector 7.53375

Next Steps Free flow speeds Capacity Calibrate to low volume conditions Capacity Localized capacities SWFT ATYPE2 PSPD MIN MAX 4 2 55 (60) 53 58 3 45 (50) 52 59 50 (55) 49 56 68 5 40 (45) 57 35 (40) 42 44 45 47 51 60 62 6 30 (35) 46

Next Steps Volume Delay Functions Diminishing Flow Conditions Improved goodness of fit with refinement by functional class, area type and other geometric factors Diminishing Flow Conditions 2 phase volume delay function Planning for autonomous vehicles

Jonathan Avner javner@wrallp.com Scott Thompson-Graves Questions Jonathan Avner javner@wrallp.com Subrat Mahapatra smahapatra@sha.state.md.us Scott Thompson-Graves Sthompson-graves@wrallp.com Ashley Tracy atracy@wrallp.com