Age-to-age infection rate matrices and age-specific infection and incidence rates forecasted in 2050 for India and Ethiopia, from the full model (Left.

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Age-to-age infection rate matrices and age-specific infection and incidence rates forecasted in 2050 for India and Ethiopia, from the full model (Left column) and reduced model 2 (Center column), with the difference (full model minus reduced model... Age-to-age infection rate matrices and age-specific infection and incidence rates forecasted in 2050 for India and Ethiopia, from the full model (Left column) and reduced model 2 (Center column), with the difference (full model minus reduced model 2) (Right column) shown in each case. Differences in incidence and infection rates are shown in gray when they are not statistically significant; otherwise they have the color associated to the model for which the rate is higher. When empirical contact patterns are introduced in the model, we observe an increased density of infections close to the diagonal (i.e., contagions taking place between individuals of similar age) and fewer infections taking place from children to adults or vice versa. At the level of infection/incidence rates, this translates into an underestimation of burden among adults (and an overestimation among children) associated to assuming contacts homogeneity in the reduced model. Sergio Arregui et al. PNAS 2018;115:14:E3238-E3245 ©2018 by National Academy of Sciences