Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España. El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España. 4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía nuclear” Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid, 19-4-2004

Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily stable - at around 20$/bl. That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that level. The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be around 60-70$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between. 11-S Irak War

Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price IEA, WEO 2004

Downstream and upstream problems

The visible part of the iceberg

Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002 World Energy Outlook 2004

Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

A growing gap

AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built World Energy Outlook 2004

Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions 7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a year). Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising demand. IEA, WEO 2004

2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%) 105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day World Energy Outlook 2004

Cumulative investment in natural gas, 2003-2030 Cumulative investment needs for gas-supply infrastructure to 2030 will amount to $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion per year from now to 2030. More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields. IEA, WEO 2004

Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d) WEO 2004

“Choke points” WEO 2004

Geopolitical uncertainties

Higher prices = more discoveries? Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s

Chinese and Indian NOC’s

The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”

Pessimists (“Hubbertites”) ASPO 2004

Optimists (“Cornucopias”) 1. This graph shows the mean resource volume (3,003 billion barrels) with the 3 different production growth rates. 2. A growth rate decrease of 1 percent (from 2 to 1 percent per year) delays the estimated production peak by 13 years. A growth rate increase of 1 percent (from 2 to 3 percent per year) accelerates the peak by 7 years. 3. Thus, EIA’s methodology indicates that a decrease of 1 percentage point in the growth rate has roughly the same effect on the estimated peak production year as adding 900 billion barrels to the resource base. 4. The 3 curves in this graph have initial declines after the peak year of 7.5 to 8.4 percent per year, gradually slowing to a decline of about 5 percent per year. 5. Incidentally, when this methodology is used to extend the reference case production curve in the IEO2000 beyond 2020 (1.9 percent per year growth rate, R/P = 10 decline rate), the estimated year of peak production is 2038 for the USGS mean resource level (3,003 billion barrels).

USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 1. This graph shows many estimates of world oil resources made since 1942. They have ranged from 600 billion to 3,896 billion barrels. 2. There is an overall increasing trend of ultimate recovery estimates over time. This trend is primarily due to increases in the quantity and quality of geological, geophysical, and reservoir engineering information, and to the development of more rigorous estimation methodologies. 3. For example, by 1959 Weeks' estimate had tripled from his 1948 estimate of 600 billion barrels to 2,000 billion barrels. The same kind of increase is observed in other cases in which the same estimators made successively larger estimates. 4. The largest world oil ultimate recovery estimates are the newly released USGS estimates. The USGS 95 percent probable value is 2,248 billion barrels (meaning there is a 19 out of 20 chance that the value will be greater than 2,248 billion barrels). Similarly, the USGS says there is a 5 percent probability (1 chance out of 20) that the value will exceed 3,896 billion barrels. The USGS mean estimate (the expected value) is 3,003 billion barrels. 5. There are a number of basins, especially in the Arctic and Antarctica, that were not included in the USGS world resource assessment because they were judged unlikely to add proved reserves during the next 30 years. Therefore, there is still some potential for even higher resource assessments. Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Trillions of Barrels Source: USGS and Colin Campbell EIA 2004

SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310