Should drilling be permitted in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge? Identify the important elements Evaluate facts about each See how they connect and interact

Systems analysis starts with a “concept map” Compartments Where you find elements that can be counted (water, land, trees or people, money) Flows (exchanges) Movements of things you can count between compartments Influences Factors that influence flows (temperature, regulations, amount of sunlight)

ANWR System Diagram Outline the major components of this system What is included in the system? What does that mean? ID Stocks, Flows, Influences Where do your questions fit into this system? Which component is the focus of your question? What other components will influence the answer? Do other questions arise as you build the system?

How is the concept evaluated? Have important elements been left out? Are premises correct? Accuracy of data Accuracy of dynamic connections Are conclusions or predictions correct? What form of extrapolation is used? Do predictions allow for the unexpected? What values inform the response to predicted change?

What will change under different scenarios of development or protection?

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