MLOSB TSL Forest Management Plan Timber Supply Analysis Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions November 24, 2016 Meadow Lake Oriented Strand Board Term Supply Licence 2018 Forest Management Plan Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Outline / Overview Landbase Growth and Yield Natural Forest Patterns What’s left to complete November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Land Base Definition November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

TSL - Location Total area: 203,929 ha Productive: 136,367 ha Three areas (Sled/Green, Bronson, Makwa) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Ecoregions Primarily Mid-Boreal Upland November 24, 2016 Boreal Transition Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Mid-Boreal Upland Primarily Mid-Boreal Upland

TSL Inventory SFVI inventory based on 1999 and 2004 photographs (93% of landbase) UTM inventory based on 1981 photographs (7% of landbase) 250 hectares without inventory November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Inventory Updates Site Index Harvest Depletions Fire Depletions 129,663 ha (95%) assigned using curves from the “Saskatchewan Inventory Site Index Project” Remainder assigned using “best fit” weighted site index Harvest Depletions Updated for harvest since 2004 using MLOSB records Fire Depletions 451 forested hectares depleted for fires not already in inventory Reforestation MLOSB records examined to confirm satisfactory restocking Reforestation to previous species composition “C” density for all stands harvested by MLOSB November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Site index – can you give me an easy explanation to describe to the PAG and a sample curve Fire depletions – 451 hectares burned since inventory done (i.e. new fires). Just confirming…

Inventory Updates Sled/Green Lake Fire Mistyping Much of area burned in 1995 is mistyped as non-forest in the SFVI Field confirmed that areas previously typed as forest in UTM are growing back as forest Used older UTM forest types to update 5,956 hectares of burned “non-forest” areas in the SFVI November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Can you put in a PDF map of where this fire was? Maybe next slide. They like pictures.

Age Class Distribution in the TSL November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions - What is non net landbase? The forested landbase that is not part of the THLB

Site Index Distribution in the TSL November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Need a definition of site index. Maybe an example of a high site index area vs low. Just to add context.

Land Base NETDOWN November 24, 2016 Many of the inputs are available on the following webmap: http://services.forsite.ca/1186-2/ Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Landbase Netdown Process Begin with the Gross Area of the Landbase Systematically apply criteria using a hierarchy to: Define the “Managed Forest Landbase” Forested area that is used to meet forest management objectives Define the “Timber Harvesting Landbase” Subset of the managed forest landbase that is available to support timber harvesting activities Use hierarchy to ensure there is no double counting of area The “effective area” is the area reduction after accounting for areas already removed from the landbase November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Netdown Table Overview (details to follow) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Start the Process….. Begin by removing areas within the TSL boundary that are not available for forest management November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Non-TSL Lands Private land (794 hectares) Beatty Lake Recreation Site (130 hectares) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Dispositions As per TSL licence document Some, such as cabins are buffered by 100 meters November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Non-Forested Lands Areas that are not classified as productive forest in the inventory November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Existing Roads, Trails and Utility Corridors Only considered corridors not already typed as a polygon in the forest inventory Did not consider seismic lines November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Managed Forest Landbase The above netdowns (67,562 hectares) leave us with the managed forest landbase, as summarized below: November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Netdowns to Managed Forest Landbase Now that we have the forested area that is managed by MLOSB, we remove additional areas that will generally not be available for harvest Result will be the Timber Harvesting Landbase, or Net Landbase November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Steep Slopes Areas classified as “S”, or steep using the inventory “TOPO_CLASS” attribute were deemed to be inoperable Total area : 3,502 hectares Effective area: 2,733 hectares November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Can you put a hyperlink to the interactive webmap – I think they would like this… http://services.forsite.ca/1186-2/

Riparian Buffers MLOSB, Forest Service, and Fish & Wildlife staff reviewed spatial lakes, rivers, and stream data and classified them into: 90 metre buffer 30 metre buffer 15 metre buffer No buffer November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Add comment regarding this being reviewed by Fish and Wildlife (fisheries guy)

Riparian Classification November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions http://services.forsite.ca/1186-2/

Petroglyph Site One petroglyph site was identified and removed Gross area: 16 hectares Effective area: 8 hectares November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Effective area definition – just want to be clear that this is the forested area impacted…

Non-Commercial Stands Stands that are uneconomic to harvest, as follows: Low Density: Mature stands at the time of photography with <= 30% crown closure Non Commercial Species: Stands with Tamarack as the leading species Low Productivity (Site Index) Stands that do not reach 15 metres in height at 100 years old Use site index to identify these stands Low Productivity (Volume) Stands that do not reach 60 m3 / ha at 100 years old November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Non-Commercial Stands November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Isolated Patches Stands that are less than 5 hectares in size and more than 100 metres away from other contributing forest or an existing road Effective area: 206 hectares November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Spatial Timber Harvesting Landbase The above netdowns (67,562 ha non-forest + 19,022 ha forested) leave us with the timber harvesting landbase that can be spatially identified in the dataset, as follows: November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions What is the total hectares of netdown? 67,562 of non forest, etc. 19,022 ha of forest

Spatial THLB (Sled/Green Lake) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Spatial THLB (Makwa/Bronson) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Non Spatial Netdowns – Stand Level Retention 6% of the Net Landbase November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Non Spatial Netdowns – Future Roads Very little additional permanent road is required 20.4 km (Makwa) 12.0 km (Bronson) Normally would be handled as a yield table reduction for regenerating stands Negligible, so will not be modelled November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Growth and Yield – Yield Groups Stands are classified into “Yield Groups” in order to generate yield tables The Timber Harvesting Landbase was stratified into 48 yield groups using the following attributes: Ecoregion Development type (i.e. species) Density Site Index For example….. All Aspen stands in the Mid Boreal Upland with the following attributes were assigned to a single Yield Group Density “A” or Density “B” Site Index >= 17 and Site Index < 19 November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions I will lose them on this slide . Can you show me an example of a yield group or table. Put in a yield group description, yield table example, etc.

Growth and Yield – Yield Tables A yield table was then generated for each Yield Group There are specific equations for each combination of Ecoregion, species, and density Site Index is the other key variable required (i.e. calculate the average site index for each Yield Group) Yield tables provide an estimate of the volume and product types for the stand at any defined age Yield tables are key for modelling as they allow us to predict what volumes will be available for harvesting as stands grow, regenerate, or break-up over the 200 year planning horizon November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Example Yield Table # 1 Ecoregion: Mid Boreal Upland Development Type : SjP Density: “CD” Site Index: >= 10 and < 17 November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Example Yield Table # 2 Ecoregion: Boreal Transition Development Type: tA Density: “CD” Site Index: >= 16 November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Operability Windows Minimum age based on: Maximum age based on: Minimum 60 m3/ha At least 95% of culmination MAI H Stands : Hardwood MAI S Stands: Softwood MAI HS/SH : Total MAI Minimum 60 years for H/HS Minimum 70 years for S/SH with Jack Pine Minimum 80 years for S/SH with White Spruce Maximum age based on: At least 50% of Peak Volume At least 60 m3/ha November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Example Operability/Transition November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

Natural Forest Patterns – Event Size November 24, 2016 Current Condition Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions Harvesting 2004-2015

Natural Forest Patterns – Old/Very Old November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions For the Productive Forested Landbase

Remaining to do…… Finish growth and yield assumptions: Successional pathways Define how natural disturbance (e.g. fire/insects) will be handled Finalize Non-timber Objectives and Targets, such as: Old/Very Old Forest Requirements Natural Forest Patterns and event sizes Woodland Caribou Other wildlife habitat such (e.g fisher, moose, marten) November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

FMP Schedule Planning Inventory submission*: Dec 30, 2016 Growth and Yield Projections: Jan 27, 2017 SGR’s and Transition Rules Jan 27, 2017 VOITs June 30, 2017 Modelling Assumptions: Feb 28, 2017 Forest Estate Modelling Report (Volume 2) June 30, 2017 Draft FMP – Volume 3 Sept 1, 2017 FMP – Volume 3 Public Review Sept 15, 2017 Final FMP – Volume 3 Submission Nov 10, 2017 * Planning inventory is the spatial data file used in the analysis November 24, 2016 Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions