“GHG Data – 2006” Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data for 1990–2004 Bonn, Germany 30 October 2006 “GHG Data – 2006” Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data for 1990–2004 by Sergey KONONOV Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bonn, Germany 23 November 2018

Introduction: what it is all about? Annex I Parties ( ‘developed’ / ‘industrialized’ countries) 2006 submission of GHG data (by 15 April) This year: GHG emissions for 1990–2004 (industrialized countries only, 41 countries) What’s new: – full data for all 41 (!) countries (first time since 1998) – new set of data for Russia – data for Turkey for the 1st time 23 November 2018

1. GHG trends 1990–2004 and KP targets by country Changes vary greatly: from –60.4% (Lithuania) to +72.6% (Turkey) EITs: mostly below KP targets; non-EITs: some close, some not 23 November 2018

2. GHG trends 1990–2004 / 2000–2004 +11.0 Since 2000, GHG emissions increased: - in EITs by 4.1% - in non-EITs by 2.0% - in total by 2.4% –3.3 –36.8 1) All industrialized countries: –3.3% => total below 1990 level 2) EITs: –36.8% / non-EITs: +11.0% => EITs down, non-EITs up 3) Trends: decreasing/increasing emissions… where and why? 23 November 2018

3. Sectoral changes in GHG emissions (all countries) 1) Successful emission reductions in industry, agriculture, waste: - from policy actions, economic restructuring, technology changes 2) Much more modest decrease for energy, only –0.4%: - mostly because … => 23 November 2018

4. Transport: challenge for GHG mitigation Increase by 52.0% Increase by 3.4% – international Increase by 23.9% Trend: continuing emissions growth in transport – both domestic and … 23 November 2018

5. Trends in detail for some countries: selection? Canada Australia Hungary Ukraine Liechtenstein Portugal Japan Monaco Bulgaria Combined trends for 15 countries Italy Spain Ireland Greece Slovakia European Community Lithuania Austria Germany Luxembourg Netherlands Switzerland Turkey Finland New Zealand Non-EIT country with greatest GHG decreases; UNFCCC host country Latvia New UNFCCC Party (since 2004); first GHG data in 2006 Belgium Czech Republic Norway Belarus France Poland Slovenia United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Romania Estonia Sweden Russian Federation United States of America Sweden Denmark Iceland EIT country with greatest emissions; new data in 2006 Industrialized country with greatest GHG emissions (39% in 2004) Croatia 23 November 2018

Germany = non-EIT country with greatest emission decreases since 1990 GHG trend for Germany Germany = non-EIT country with greatest emission decreases since 1990 2000 – 2004: GDP = +2.5% GHG emissions = -0.7% 1990 – 2004: GDP = +28.6% GHG emissions = -17.2% -17.2% KP target = -21% Trends: steep declines in 1990–1994 and 1996 –1999: fluctuations after 2000 23 November 2018 GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

GHG trend for United States of America US = industrialized country with greatest GHG emissions (39% in 2004) +15.8% 2000 – 2004: GDP = +11.7% GHG emissions = +1.3% 1990 – 2004: GDP = +51.2% GHG emissions = +15.8% Trends: slower increase after 2000; slower emission increase compared to GDP 23 November 2018 GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

GHG trend for European Community EC = a combined trend for 15 member States of the European Union -0.6% KP target = -8% 1990 – 2004: GDP = +33.3% GHG emissions = -0.6% 2000 – 2004: GDP = +6.6% GHG emissions = +2.4% Trends: fluctuations with overall decrease; some increase after 2000 (slower than GDP) 23 November 2018 GDP and population data are from the IEA; emissions data are from UNFCCC

GHG trend for Russian Federation Russia = industrialized country with 2nd greatest GHG emissions (11% in 2004); also EIT country with greatest emissions 2000 – 2004: GDP = +26.1% GHG emissions = +4.1% 1990 – 2004: GDP = -13.1% GHG emissions = -32.0% -32.0% KP target = 0% Trends: decrease until 1998 => slow emission increase after 2000 Earlier extrapolation: -38.5% in 2003, now real data: -32.0% in 2004. 23 November 2018 GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

GHG trend for Turkey Turkey = new Annex I Party to the Convention (since 2004); Party with a rapid economic growth +72.6% 2000 – 2004: GDP = +16.4% GHG emissions = +5.3% 1990 – 2004: GDP = +65.9% GHG emissions = +72.6% Trends: slower increase after 2000; slower emission decrease than that of GDP 23 November 2018 GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

Summary Good news: In 2004, emissions from industrialized countries were below 1990 level by 3.3% GHG decrease 1990–2004 is combined with economic growth Not so good news: Emissions from industrialized countries increasing since 2000 (EITs and non-EITs) Energy-relating emissions growing, mostly due to transport; emission reductions in transport are needed but seem to be especially difficult to achieve But: Positive development: less and less emissions per GDP unit (decoupling continues) Also: The GHG data submitted under the Climate Change Convention are a reliable basis for assessing progress in emission reductions 23 November 2018