DELWP Regional Research including A Regional Career - Migration histories survey, Bendigo and Ballarat David Sykes Principal Demographer 30 June 2017

Land Use & Population Research Census 2016 Overview Land Use & Population Research Census 2016 A Regional Career – migration histories survey, Bendigo & Ballarat

Victorian Population (ERP) rebased upwards by 100,000+ Following each Census ABS rebases the population, replacing the previous estimates which were ‘modelled forward’ from the 2011 Census-based total Estimated Resident Population, Victoria, Original and Rebased Rebased Original Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016; Australian Demographic Statistics (ABS 3101.0)

Change in Usual Resident Population by LGA, 2011-16 Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

Census growth higher than previous estimates ERP2016 = Estimated Resident Population for 30 June 2016, published March 2017, based on 2011 Census and components of population change Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016; Australian Demographic Statistics (ABS 3101.0)

Four geographic areas Victoria Latrobe-Gippsland SA4 Bass Coast LGA PAKENHAM WARRAGUL MORWELL Victoria Latrobe-Gippsland SA4 Bass Coast LGA Wonthaggi-Inverloch SA2 PHILLIP ISLAND WONTHAGGI INVERLOCH WILSONS PROMONTORY

Census 2016 – Key indicators Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

Census 2016 – Country of birth Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

Census 2016 – Language spoken at home Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

Census 2016 – Religious affiliation 39% 40% 36% 32% 49% 48% 51% 48% Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

Change in age structure, Usual Resident Population, 2006-16 Ballarat LGA Greater Bendigo LGA Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

A Regional Career – migration histories survey, Ballarat & Bendigo Presented on behalf of: Fiona McKenzie Principal Researcher

The project Government interest - understanding the characteristics of individuals who end up in regional areas can inform attraction and retention strategies. Those who have high levels of human capital (skills and education) are of particular interest for future regional economic development, hence the focus on professional workers Retrospective approach - pathways of professionals now living in non-metro Survey undertaken in Bendigo (2015) and Ballarat (2016) Three workplaces in each location: Local Council Local Health Service Private sector firm (Bendigo Bank; IBM Ballarat) In total – 1,271 responses (537 from Ballarat and 734 from Bendigo)

The survey samples

Location where higher degrees obtained Location where bachelor and postgraduate degrees were obtained, Ballarat and Bendigo samples

Life stages and locations Birth Childhood Secondary Education Highest Qualification 2015/ 2016 LIFE STAGE LOCATION Location #1 Location #2 Location #3 Location #4 Bendigo/ Ballarat B: Ballarat/Bendigo M: Metropolitan (Melbourne and interstate) R: Regional (Victoria and interstate, excl. Bendigo/Ballarat) O: Overseas

What the migration codes [might] mean BBBB [B] Ballarat born and bred BBBM [B] Ballarat returners RRRB [B] Moving in from the regions for higher education RRRR [B] Moving in from the regions for work MMMM [B] Tree changers? or professional nurseries? (age related) OOOO [B] Overseas migrant OOOM [B] Overseas migrant / student via Melbourne OOOB [B] Overseas student

Migration pathways Ballarat born & bred

Reasons for moving to Ballarat and Bendigo

Advantages of living in Ballarat and Bendigo

Disadvantages of living in Ballarat and Bendigo

Stay or leave? Intention to stay or leave by organisation Intention to stay or leave by age (combined sample)

Destination for those intending to leave Destination for those intending to leave, combined sample

Summary of key points The surveys revealed that many professionals working in regional locations have regional backgrounds. For those who had moved to Bendigo or Ballarat, it was most commonly for family reasons: following a spouse or partner; wishing to raise children in the country; or returning to the region of birth. These motivations highlight the importance of having connections with a location through friends, family or past experience. Hence, attraction strategies may be more effective if they are targeted to those who already have experience of country life.

Greater issue for those at start of their career. Summary of key points Economic factors are also important drivers of migration. Those from metro backgrounds are more likely to move to regional for a specific job rather than amenity. A challenge for regional professionals is that the smaller job markets of regional cities (compared to metropolitan areas) makes it less likely that a wide selection of alternative jobs are available. Greater issue for those at start of their career. Younger age profile of respondents from IBM tended to have higher levels of uncertainty about whether they would stay in Ballarat, and a greater likelihood to report the lack of employment opportunities in Ballarat as a problem.

Summary of key points There appears to be an effect arising from Ballarat’s proximity to Melbourne with many of those surveyed comparing their current situation with that in Melbourne. POSITIVE: affordability raised as a more important factor for moving in Ballarat than Bendigo. NEGATIVE: income, service availability or entertainment opportunities are reported as being lower than in Melbourne.

Summary of key points In response to smaller labour markets and the need for specific skills, local business can play an important role in ‘growing their own’ employees. Developing and maintaining close partnerships with local training providers and universities Providing internships and scholarships to develop career pathways for local youth. Communicating these pathways to those still at secondary school may assist in retaining young adults in the local labour force. Having a regional start to their working life may be important in showing that a regional career is possible – either to develop or to return to at a later date.

Contact: Land Use and Population Research, DELWP Email: forwardpolicy Contact: Land Use and Population Research, DELWP Email: forwardpolicy.research@delwp.vic.gov.au