Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: The 2016 election 11/23/2018 4:25 AM Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016 © 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

How Trump Wins No Third Term Obama/Clinton Fatigue Rust Belt Strength – Non-College Blue Collars Increasing White % of Electorate by 4-5% Fall Recession? Fall Terrorism? Supreme Court focus Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

The News Media’s Choice: Trump Source: mediaQuant Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

How Hillary Wins Demographic Trends Anti-Trump Wave – Minorities plus High Turnout Obama at 50% Job Approval Women’s Vote Reunite w/ Sanders Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

“Real Republican Ticket” 2016 Presidential Election: Other November Options? “Real Republican Ticket” No French Revolution Libertarians Johnson/Weld Greens Remember Nader Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Chris Christie Scott Walker John Kasich Bob Corker Jan Brewer 2016 Presidential Election: Only 113 Days Away A Sampling of Possible R VPs Chris Christie Scott Walker John Kasich Bob Corker Jan Brewer Newt Gingrich Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Tim Kaine Julián Castro Sherrod Brown Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden 2016 Presidential Election: Only 113 Days Away A Sampling of Possible D VPs Tim Kaine Julián Castro Sherrod Brown Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

2016 Trump v. Clinton 347 191 Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

The Political Map of the US Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Intense Polarization Source: Pew Research Center Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Intense Polarization Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Red States Carried by Obama 2016 Senate Races Red States Carried by Obama FL, IA, IL, NH, OH, PA, WI Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

2016 Senate Ratings 47 5 48 Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

If Democrats win the Senate, Bernie Sanders wants the chair, but Patty Murray is in line Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

2018 Senate Map Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

191 18 226 2016 Congress Dems. Reps. House: 247 R, 188 D Toss-ups 2016 House Ratings Dems. Toss-ups Reps. 191 18 226 OUTLOOK – Dems +10 or so Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Vast majority of members will return If Rs hold the House, Joe Wilson or Virginia Foxx are possible Kline replacements Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

2016 Gubernatorial Ratings Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

State legislatures Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Who funds campaigns Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

To read more… www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

Available from the following: The Bellwether: Now available Available from the following: Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016