The Invasion of Iraq 2003 “Operation Iraqi Freedom?”

Milestones March 3, 2003: Pres. Bush announces Iraqi invasion April 9, 2003: Baghdad falls April 19, 2003: Cement mixer truck bomb hits UN mission killing 17 May 1, 2003: Bush announces “mission accomplished” May 16, 2003: CPA Order # 1 removes 50,000 Ba’ath Party members from power May 23, 2003: CPA Order # 2 disbands the Iraqi Army

Milestones August 7, 2003: Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad bombed – first terrorist-style attack in Iraq December 13, 2003: Saddam captured April 30, 2004: Abu Ghraib Scandal breaks June 2004: Bremer turns power over to Iraqi interim government September 2004: 1,000 American battle deaths November 7, 2004: 1st Battle of Falluja January 2005: Elections for new government

Milestones October 2005: 2,000 American battle deaths November 19th 2005: Haditha Massacre, 24 die after IED October 2005: Constitutional election December 2005: Parliamentary election December 2006: 3,000 American battle deaths March 2008: 4,000 American battle deaths August 2010: Pres. Obama declares end to U.S. combat in Iraq

Why were we there? WMD George W. Bush Bush Advisors 9/11 Preventive War US Strategic Culture Oil

Missed Opportunities February 2003: General Eric Shinseki warns that “something on the order of several hundred thousand” soldiers will be needed for postwar Iraq. He is ignored. May, 2003: De-Ba’athification and disbanding the army leave 300,000 men with military training suddenly unemployed. 2004-05: Cities Strategy and “Whack-a-Mole” operations. Attempts to fight the war by ourselves.

Mistakes WMD Disbanding Iraqi Army De-Bathification Military Strategy – Search and Destroy Conveying overly negative image

Mistakes Underestimating the influence of Iran in Iraqi Shiite politics Cultural differences: Arabs vs. Kurds Misunderstanding of terrorism

Mistakes Security (Transportation, Blackwater, Weapons, Borders) Economically: Where is the money going? Winning hearts and minds

Nature of the Insurgency The “Reconcilables” Former Ba’athists Special Republican Guard officers The “Irreconcilables” AQI Paid $35 for RPG attack, $500 for confirmed kill of Americans

Success How do you measure success? The “Surge” Saddam out of power COIN strategy: U.S. and Iraqi forces together Indirect Counterinsurgency The Anbar Awakening Saddam out of power Increased enlistment into Iraqi Army/Reduced US presence Elections/New Government Normal life resumed?

the future Kurd independence? Mapping the new Middle East Egypt

The War in afghanistan

Geography

Life expectancy – 44.4 years 24% in urban centers Population Total -- 28,395,716 (est. July 2010) Structure 0-14 years: 43.6% 15-64 years: 54% 65 years and over: 2.4% Median Age – 18 years Life expectancy – 44.4 years 24% in urban centers

Ethnic make-up Ethnic groups Religion Language Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4% Religion Sunni Muslim 80%, Shia Muslim 19%, Other 1% Language Afghan Persian or Dari (official) 50%, Pashto (official) 35%, Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%, 30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%, Ethnic make-up

Economy GDP Labor – 15 million (2004 est.) Products $27.01 billion (2009 est.) – 110 in world rank $1,000/capita (2009 est.) – 210 in world rank Labor – 15 million (2004 est.) agriculture: 78.6% industry: 5.7% services: 15.7% (FY08/09 est.) 35% unemployed (2008 est.) Products Agricultural -- opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton, sheepskins, lambskins Industrial -- small-scale production of consumer goods; hand-woven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper

History 1747 – unification of the Pashtun tribes 1919 - independence from notional British control 1973 coup and a 1978 Communist counter-coup resulted in Soviet Union invasion 1979 1989 USSR withdrawal 1996 end of civil war period control by Taliban 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in NYC and Washington, D.C. 7 October 2001 U.S., Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance military action toppled the Taliban. December 2004, Hamid KARZAI became the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan and the National Assembly was inaugurated the following December.

Government Executive – Hamid Karzai – Head of state and Command-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Afghanistan. Legislative -- National Assembly or Parliament. Lower house is the Wolesi Jirga (the House of People) Upper house is the Meshrano Jirga. (House of Elders) Judicial Supreme Court (Stera Mahkama), High Courts, and Appeal Courts. Supreme Court is composed of nine members Appointed by the President for a period of ten years Approval of the Wolesi Jirga.

LEAD INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN (pre-surge) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7966982.stm#map

Afghanistan Facts The Taliban, Sunni fundamentalists, had controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996 after defeat of the Northern Alliance. They provided safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and other members of al Qaeda during their planning of the 9/11 “Planes Operation” The Taliban were only recognized by 3 other states and were known for a brutal strict interpretation of Sharia Law. The provided a training ground for radical Islamic terrorists

Afghanistan Facts Operation “Enduring Freedom”, The US-led invasion in 2001 was largely special forces, CIA and air support for Northern Alliance forces, toppled the Taliban in just 2 months. Remnants of the Taliban moved to the Tora Bora region in Eastern Afghanistan or in to Pakistan

Afghanistan Facts The UN Security Council created the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to rebuild Afghanistan and provide security. Hamid Karzai, “The Mayor of Kabul” By 2003 the Taliban had regrouped in Pakistan By 2007 Security incidents increased 300%. IED attacks rose by 37% The Karzai govt control only75% of the country Over 1000 civilians killed by ISAF

Afghanistan is not Iraq Afghanistan Facts Afghanistan is not Iraq

Afghanistan Facts Afghanistan is 174th of 178 countries on the UN development index Afghanistan is 176th of 180 countries on the UN corruption index GDP per capita is $456, up from 352 last year 90% of Aghan budget comes from foreign aid Afghanistan supplies 90% of the world’s opium, worth $3 billion to the economy Taliban make $200 million per year from taxing poppy production

Afghanistan Facts “The Great Game” History of Invasion – British, Soviet Union & Pakistan

Whose side is pakistan on?

Afghanistan Facts The Afghan “Surge” ISAF now numbers 120K up from 70k (90k are American) Indirect Counterinsurgency has reduced civilian casualties by half “Clear, Hold, Build……and Transfer/WHAM Focus remains Helmand & Kandahar provinces Afghan Army and police recruiting are up, but illiteracy and desertion still present a problem

Issues What would represent a successful outcome? What policies would you recommend?