Why are the effects less than predicted? Key Question: How can the seismic hazard be managed and how useful is such management? Haicheng China 1975 2041 dead 27 538 injured Population 1 million Potential deaths and injuries in hindsight predicted to be 150,000 Key Words: Prediction and Warning Aseismic building design and regulation Why are the effects less than predicted?

warned exact magnitude time Managing the seismic (earthquake) hazard Managing the seismic hazard reduces the risk! There are two types of management: Prediction and Warning Aseismic building design and regulation A successful prediction means that the population could be ………………… of a future earthquake. To make a prediction scientists would need to predict the………….. place an earthquake would strike and at indicate the potential size by forecasting its ……………………….and specifically at what ………………………….. it would strike. warned exact magnitude time

Predicting Earthquakes Complete the table grid on EQ prediction

Prediction seems unlikely at the moment as seismology is a relatively new science and the earth is more complex than we once thought. 1. ‘Earthquake prediction would be useless anyway.’” Explain why 2. “Aseismic design is the best way to manage the hazard anyway? Explain why

Aseismic Design http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZoHoPFHAtw

Modelling Buildings: Competition

Base Isolation (shock absorbers) Friction pendulum bearings Modelling Buildings Base Isolation (shock absorbers) Friction pendulum bearings K cross bracing X cross bracing Pyramid design Shear walls and collums Smart Metres (Tokyo Gas Co) Computer controlled stability Retrofitting (full metal jackets)