Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South SYNDICATE 7 Horizon Scanning: Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South

Initial Brainstorming Questions Understanding the meaning and scope of “horizon scanning” What information is needed? Which actors should be involved? What are limitations and risks? How can CIMIC contribute to the network?  

Horizon Scanning Objectives Identify factors / drivers / root causes for (in)stability Elements of stability versus triggers of instability Horizon scanning as part of the mission of the Southern Hub (NSD-S Hub)  

Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability Main Categories PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure) To Consider Who is and should be looking at factors? Who is able to asses a specific situation? Who is ensuring complete coverage by criteria of stability? Using ASCOPE (Area, Structure, Culture, Organization, Persons, Events)  

Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability Understanding culture Ethnic tensions Key-leaders State resilience   More Detailed List Leadership perceptions Civilian perceptions Gov’t structures/institutions Historic trends and understanding Operating patterns Education Employment level Religious influence Anthropology – understanding the society

Strengths CIMIC assets (“boots on the ground” for the Hub) Mutual trust / confidence Using current capacities / planning procedures from a PS dimension Support the decision making process Existing resilience Early warning system Future Mission Network & CivMil Exchange products Understanding of Comprehensive Approach

Weaknesses Too many actors leads to duplication of efforts (lack of coordination/info sharing) Negative perception of NATO by Non-Military Actors and Partner Nations Political barriers to info-sharing among Allies/with Partners Governmental/organizational interests Definition of rules of information sharing Difficulty of predicting outcomes

Opportunities Info-sharing platforms, regular meetings/conferences/workshops Building relationships with international/regional organizations (AU, EU, GCC, LAS, UN, 5+5 initiative) think-tanks (including in the region) civilian universities, defense institutes in the region others Exploit existing tools already used by other actors Expand Comprehensive Approach Consider regional context Optimized allocation of resources (by increasing coordination and avoiding duplication) Support interaction with non-military actors

Threats Need to know versus need to share Corruption / criminality Information sharing perceived as intelligence collection Criminal networks Regional impact

Main Line of Effort SMEs (think tanks, academia) Strategic Key Leaders (regional, local) NMAs (IOs, GOs, NGOs) Allies and Partners Actor Mapping Selection Outreach Engagement Key Stakeholders Key Activities Network Building Communication platform Information management system Mutual trust Seminars, conferences Common understanding Database of actors Confidence building MoUs, TAs, contracts Outputs Resources Time Scales Current activities: Mapping and outreach (cyclical activity) Future activities: Building communication platform, engagement

Enablers and Blockers Enablers Existing networks Existing information sharing tools … Blockers National caveats for information sharing Political crisis Conflicting interests/agendas among stakeholders

“Thank You for Your Attention” “Grazie per l’attenzione”