Modeling climate change impacts on tropical forest biodiversity of French Guiana - CLIMFOR - Bruno Hérault – UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane – Labex CEBA Jean-François Dhôte – Office National des Forêts

Highly diverse tropical rain forests not fragmented Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management 80 000 km² 90 % forest 220 000 people (+4.5%.year-1) > 20% unemployment Highly diverse tropical rain forests not fragmented

Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management

Research Questions Does the spatial variation of climate shape forest Ecosystem Services*? Will the future climate scenario change the values of the selected Ecosystem Services*? Can we optimize the design of protected areas in French Guiana to account for all possible futures? What exploitation rules should be set up by forest managers to maintain long-term viable tree populations? * Species Diversity, Functional Diversity, Carbon Storage, Timber Resource

What do we need? What do we have? What will we be doing? Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management What do we need? Long-term forest dynamic data Botanical identification What do we have? Guyafor Forest Network Habitat Forest Network What will we be doing? Forest Recensus Growth-Mortality Monitoring

CLIMFOR What do we need? What do we have? What will we be doing? Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management What do we need? Rainfall & Water stress monitoring Temperature & Irradiance data What do we have? Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Météo France What will we be doing? Install TDR probes (water stress) Install 5 Weather Station CLIMFOR There is a dry season in tropical forest and this is probably the most important driver we need to monitor this but impossible without monitoring water stress, we’ll do that using weather station and WBW parametrized on these data

What do we need? What do we have? What will we be doing? Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management What do we need? Leaf-Stem-Root Economics Around 700 species What do we have? ANR BRIDGE data (Leaf-Stem) NSF Amalin data (Leaf-Stem-Root) What will we be doing? Anatomical Traits for 200 sp Completing Leaf-Stem economics “Anatomical traits are good candidates to shape tree water stress response but our knowledge is currently lacking”

Functional Diversity Carbon Storage Timber Resource Environmental Data Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management Environmental Data Geology Geomorphology Topography Land-Use Climate Static Data Weather Station Météo France TRMM data Species Diversity Functional Diversity Carbon Storage Timber Resource Inventory Data Trait Data

Reference Maps Climate Scenarios Forest Dynamic Models Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management Reference Maps Climate Scenarios Forest Dynamic Models Water Balance Model

National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series

Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series Natural Reserves Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park

Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series Natural Reserves Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park National Parc ‘Parc Amazonien de Guyane’

Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series Natural Reserves Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park National Parc ‘Parc Amazonien de Guyane’ Other Protections ZNIEFFs Biotope Protection Orders

Evaluate the Current Network Prioritize Protection Levels Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management National Forests Ecological Series Protection Series Natural Reserves Private Natural reserves Regional Natural Park National Parc ‘Parc Amazonien de Guyane’ Other Protections ZNIEFFs Biotope Protection Orders Evaluate the Current Network Prioritize Protection Levels Modelize biogeographical senibilities Manage Protected Areas

Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management Dicorynia guianensis Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Impact of climate change on forest dynamic Adapt the sylvicultural objectives

Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management Dicorynia guianensis Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Impact of climate change on forest dynamic Adapt the sylvicultural objectives Differential tree population sensibility Take into account bio-geographical influence in management plans

Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Context Reference Maps Forest Plots Predictive Modeling Climate Monitoring Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management Dicorynia guianensis Qualea rosea 75% production Sextonia rubra Impact of climate change on forest dynamic Adapt the sylvicultural objectives Differential tree population sensibility Take into account bio-geographical influence in management plans Use Reference Maps to define territories objectives Timber and fuel-wood availability for example

CLIMFOR thanks Reference Maps Climate Monitoring Predictive Modeling Forest Plots Protected Areas Functional Traits Forest Management FUNCTIONAL TRAITS CLIMFOR thanks FOREST PLOTS CLIMATE MONITORING