Μεθοδολογία Οικονομική ανάλυση (opportunity costs, utility functions, minimize costs in shipping transportation, increase efficiency, economies of scale, agglomeration economies, etc. ) Pure theory of trade, public economics, theory of business cycles, environmental economics, economics of technological change (containerization, grabs, etc

Service production possibility Curve become steep. More tanker sacrifices needed to get a ferry unit

Utility Production, be it services or goods = Consumed to maximize Utility subject to budget constraint. Types of utility: place utility (a movement of freight to a destination where is more useful), possession utility (change hands to increase utility), time utility (the utility/vessels of commodities at particular times) .

Minimize cost & Economies of scale & agglomeration econ. It’s about efficiency… Size of activity and reduction of unit cost. See mega ships today Clustering. Maritime clusters!

Trade It is about sea trade! Comparative advantage and specialization. Cost efficiency matters here! Globalization (?) of capitalism. The propeller of sea trade!

tariffs

Business cycles Shipping cycles! You predict, you become a billionaire!

Public economics It is all about environment (externalities) Environment and safety one of the biggest issues in shipping! A license to operate!

Economics of technological change Examples Mega ships and economies of scale Efficiency in fuels Technical efficiency Containerization Grabs etc. Time waste free

Trade & shipping steam, iron-made ships, cables, refrigeration, new countries….

The global sea transport demand model Three categories of trade: There is deficit trade, which occurs when there is a physical shortage of a product in one area and a surplus in another. Competitive trade, a country may be capable of producing a product, but cheaper supplies are available overseas. Cyclical trade, which occurs in times of temporary shortages, for example due to poor harvest, or business cycles.

Imf outlook 2016 oct.

Heading to Globalization Trade c+i+g+ca=Y ca=trade glob. Capital Migration Trade Glob.=Trade to Y (what is the statistics of that…)

WORLD MERCHENDISE TRADE 40% of all increase in trade 2002-2008 = because of China! Source: www.wto.org (short-term trade statistics) 32

Despite world stagnation, China….

China… According to data assembled by visual capitalist, China consumes 54 percent of the world’s aluminum production, 48 percent of all copper, 50 percent of nickel, 45 percent of steel and 60 percent of concrete. It has “consumed more concrete in the last three years than the United States did in all of the 20th century.” In terms of energy, China uses 49 percent of the world’s coal, 13 percent of the uranium and 12 percent of oil. It’s the same with food: 30 percent of the world’s rice, 22 percent of its corn and 17 percent of wheat. China was one of the big reasons for the commodity surge in the 2000s. The country's growth has now been cut in half, and that's why prices are now back to the levels of the 1990s.

http://www. washingtonpost http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/brand-connect/wp/enterprise/china-an-economy-in-transition/ video

Parcel size distribution

Parcel size distribution

Shipping Routes

Developed…50% of global trade. It was 70% 3 decades ago…

Fragmentation of production and trade

After a fairly flat period in the 1990s, the index leapt upward beginning in the early 2000s. The context explains the jump: High inflation, weak dollar and low interest rates. From 2001 to 2007, the dollar lost 41 percent of its value, and all commodities priced in dollars skyrocketed. At the same time, China began a huge expansion of its infrastructure, transportation, housing and manufacturing sectors. The BCOM index moved from around 90 to almost 240.

Source: IMF outlook 2016 oct.

Metal prices

2017 imf outlook

Price contraction Oil prices have been cut almost in half compared with a year ago, to $45 from $87. They are down more than 60 percent from the peak of about $150 barrel of the mid-2000s. The U.S. consumed 6.98 billion barrels in 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The silver lining is that current prices reflect a $42 per barrel savings from a year ago. If it holds, it could put almost $300 billion back in consumers' pockets. We have seen some early signs of that money being spent in recent retail sales. But as the commodity index shows, this isn’t just about oil; just about all commodities have fallen across the board. There are several reasons for the price contraction: Along with the strong dollar, excess supply, thanks to North American fracking, also is a contributor. Natural gas was trading Thursday morning at $2.488 per million British thermal units, and oil has cratered, too. We shouldn't underestimate the impact of a slowing China on commodity prices. It has been on a huge building binge, a government planned overconsumption on an epic scale. When China, the world's biggest consumer of commodities, slows, commodity producers feel the pain.

Wage stagnation hurts…

Decoupling wages from productivity

Mining and metals…+ Developoing..

Trade bet. Developing..South-south = north-north

Developed exports…+ north – south trade composition…

South-south (east asia – Latin Amer.)

China’s role increases….

China’s share in world trade has rapidly increased…

WORLD SEABORNE TRADE GROWTH Source: www.clarksons.com - Shipping Market Overview (http://www.clarksons.net/sin2010/papers/#) 98

Total maritime trade has doubled from 1985 to 2007; total containerised trade has grown eight-fold over the same period and currently represents 16% of all maritime trade by weight (and a much larger share by value). Depending on the weight carried per container unit, trade in containers measured by deliveries is projected to more or less triple from 2000 to 2020. In terms of container movements including transhipments, Drewry Shipping Consultants forecasts a more than six-fold rise from 2000 to 2020. This growth has important GHG repercussions as the average installed power on container vessels is higher than on most other types of vessels and, given the speeds at which container vessels travel, increased container vessel activity will result in greater maritime CO2 emissions than might otherwise have been expected based on past fleet structure. Nonetheless, in aggregate, energy use per tonne delivered by sea has generally followed a decreasing trend from 1985 to 2007 with the advent of more efficient engines, better propellers and larger vessels. - See more at: http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/archivestory.php/aid/2600/Sea_fairer:_Maritime_transport_and_CO2_emissions.html#sthash.jd8beNQ2.dpuf

Source: www. clarksons. com - Shipping Market Overview (http://www 100

Shipping to and from developing countries is more expensive than OECD Some of the main findings. It is almost twice as expensive, in ad valorem terms, to export from developing countries as compared with OECD countries. On average, OECD agricultural exports face transport costs of 5.8 percent and whereas imports to OECD of agricultural goods from all destinations are subject to maritime transport costs of 7.4 percent ad valorem. Transport costs in agricultural trade to and from non-OECD countries, however, are significantly higher, representing 10 percent ad valorem overall 101

Maritime transport costs for grains in some NFIDCs One of the areas of particular concern to our member countries: costs of importing staple foods, and grains in particular, into some of the lower income and NFIDCs. Due to many factors: poor harvests, increased demand in emerging markets, production of biofuels, etc. But also increases in transport costs. Shipping grains already represents a large share of their imported value due to the fact that they are relatively low value added goods, and have a low value-to-weight and value-to-volume ratio. In addition, the cost has been multiplied by three since 2003 in some cases. 102

Impact of MTC on trade in agriculture A doubling of transport costs ($/T) is associated with a 33-36 % decline in agricultural trade overall Distance is still significant The impact of transport costs on trade is increasing over time – by 1.5 percentage points per year First sector that we have analysed: agriculture. Pretty consistent finding throughout the model specifications – using aggregate data, or disaggregated at the product level. Gravity model analysis usually uses distance as a proxy for transport and other trade costs. Explicitly accounting for MTC, we can now leave other variables – cultural distance, business networks, unfamiliarity, etc. that we may have trouble modelling correctly This may be due to increasing need for timely arrival to market ; countries shifting towards closer trading partners (ex: AUS to Asia) ; or the fact that lighter, higher value added products are being shipped increasingly by air. 103