The Changeover from CEMAP to NAICS: Implications for the Production of Economic Statistics in México

Contents: Introduction CMAP and NAICS features Necessary adjustments to the generation of information process due to the classifier changeover Conclusions

Introduction North America free trade agreement NAFTA

Introduction México United States of America Canada Mexican Classification of activities and products Standard Industrial Classification from USA Standard Industrial Classification from Canada North American Industrial Classification NAICS

CMAP and NAICS features Structure: CMAP NAICS Sector Sector Sub-sector Sub-sector Sub-sector Sub-sector Branch Branch Branch Branch Branch Branch Branch Sub-branch Sub-branch Sub-branch Sub-branch Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class Class

Structure: Sector 9 Sub-sector 34 Branch 12 Class 754 Sector 20 CMAP NAICS Level of Aggregation Number of categories   Sector 9 Sub-sector 34 Branch 12 Class 754 Level of Aggregation Number of categories   Sector 20 Sub-sector 95 Branch 309 Sub-branch 631 Class 1051

Aggregation principles and criteria CMAP NAICS similarity in the production function special importance to new and emerging e.a. and services focused on the development of advanced technology production processes type of goods and products participation of the e.u. in the economy

Importance of the classifier Allows the ordering of gathering, analysing and broadcasting the information Facilitates evaluation and comparison of the economic activity

I. Production of Equivalence Tables Necessary adjustments due to the classifier changeover I. Production of Equivalence Tables II. Re-ordering the Sampling Frame III. Coverage Analysis and Survey Redesign IV. Construction of Parallel Series

Production of equivalence tables CIIU The bridge: CMAP 94 CMAP 99 NAICS

The reclassification process Census Operative: Assignment of CMAP99 code to 3.2 million of e.u. Use of the equivalence table to assign the new code Construction of the catalogue Business Register CMAP 94 NAICS CIIU

Fragment of the catalogue of products with their CMAP99 class codes by type of activity PRODUCTS AND / OR SERVICES ACTIVITY PRODUCTION COMMERCE SERVICE WHOLESALE RETAIL RENT REPAIR BY TH E PUBLIC SECTOR BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR . . . . . .   CLOTHING ACCESORIES FROM TEXTILE MATERIALS 322053 612022 623027 831211 - METALLIC ACCESORIES FOR THE BATHROOM, MIXER FAUCETS, SHOWER EQUIPMENT 361231 612075 623084 NON METALLIC ACCESORIES FOR THE BATHROOM TOWEL, SOAP AND BRUSH HOLDERS ACCESORIES FOR SEWING MACHINES FOR INDUSTRIAL USE 382143 612082 831131 961112 ACCESSORIES FOR GASOLINE ENGINES FOR INDUSTRIAL USE 382211 612087 831161 961119 ACCESSORIES AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS FOR ASSORTED EQUIPMENT 383251 612069

Fragment of the table of class correspondence CMAP99 - CIIU, NAICS, CMAP ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CIIU 3.1 NAICS CMAP94 . . . . .   13 FISHERIES - 1300 FISHING 130011 SHRIMP CULTIVATION 500 112511 130020 130019 OTHER WATER FAUNA CULTIVATION 112519 130021 SHRIMP FISHING 114111 130012 130022 TUNA FISHING 114112 130023 SARDINE AND ANCHOVIE FISHING 114113 130029 FISHING OF OTHER SPECIES 114119 130013

Sample frame recognition The economic units may pass from one dominion to another There are changes in the composition of the economic activity It´s necesary to obtain the new structure and re-order the sample frame

Recognising the changes Total of sectors, sub-sectors, branches, sub-branches and class of activity for the main activities in México* according to the classifiers CMAP94 and NAICS97   No. Sectors No. Sub-sectors No. Branches No. Sub-branches No. Class of Activity Activity CMAP94 NAICS 97 NAICS97 Total 6 15 25 76 110 250 - 518 667 787 Construction 1 3 5 17 26 Manufacturig 9 21 54 86 182 306 293 Commerce 2 16 41 67 118 142 Services 11 13 36 252 217 335 * Frame excluding the public sector

Recognising the changes Table of movements between the CMAP94 sector and the NAICS sector in number of economic units CMAP94 Sector Total NAICS Sector Manufacturing Construction Commerce Services Other NAICS Sector 2,755,788 336,283 14,494 1,426,725 973,831 4,455   337,462 335,034 2,035 393 10,300 10,288 12 1,427,842 1,424,270 3,548 24 Services* 980,184 1,249 4,206 2,455 968,248 4,026 *Only considering private non financial services

Recognising the changes Table of movements between the CMAP94 sector and the NAICS sector in total of occupied personnel CMAP94 Sector Total NAICS Sector Manufacturing Construction Commerce Services Other NAICS Sector 14,059,747 4,349,177 701,766 3,919,865 5,039,454 49,485   4,409,936 4,346,584 55,408 7,944 669,779 666,477 3,302 3,908,787 3,897,696 9,733 1,358 Services* 5,071,245 2,593 35,289 22,169 4,974,313 36,881 *Only considering private non financial services

Coverage analysis and survey redesign As the level of the structure is lowered the differences become more acute, then we must ask… Has the sample mantained its coverage and representativity? Are there new dominions?

Coverage analysis and survey redesign An example: the Monthly Industrial Survey The 205 classes became 248 The sample size increased from 5 696 to 9 318 establishments

Coverage analysis and survey redesign Regarding deterministic designs... The sample maintains the weight in terms of: Occupied personnel? Value of the production?

Number of Establishments Coverage of the number of establishments, occupied personnel and production value for two CMAP classes and their corresponding NAICS classes for the EIM CMAP NAICS Number of Establishments Occupied Personnel Production Value Frame Sample Coverage % Frame K$ Sample K$ CMAP94 Class 215 50 23.26 23 454 18 498 78.87 20 669 626 19 245 715 93.11 341021 NAICS97 Class   322121 322122 68 73.53 20 744 18 552 89.43 19 958 904 19 430 943 97.35 322220 156 42 56.92 8 724 6 435 73.76 5 028 425 4 537 093 90.23 322291 27 11 40.74 6 187 3 986 64.43 12 286 537 8 596 828 69.97 218 32 14.68 6 888 4 975 72.23 2 043 829 1 690 584 82.72 382106 333120 51 13 25.49 4 841 3 629 74.96 4 208 132 3 111 711 73.95 333220 55 6 10.91 968 307 31.71 190 482 87 963 46.18 333293 30 217 38 571 333294 7 71 12 933 333299 80 16 20.00 4 026 3 382 84.00 1 222 429 1 072 698 87.75 339111 458 25 5.46 7 196 3 720 51.70 1 474 634 912 712 61.89

Construction of parallel series New state in the behavior of economic activity Redesign In order to: Avoid wrong interpretations Maintain comparability To maintain parallel series

Maintaining parallel series for the Monthly Industrial Survey 2003 2004 2005 . . . . . . . . . JAN FEB MAR JAN FEB MAR JAN FEB MAR CMAP Serial NAICS Serial

Conclusions The B.R. isn´t only a list to identify the e.u. The B.R. is an instrument for the production of statistical information The B.R. must be a support instrument to maintain the congruence between the results of the information production before and after the change of classifier A change in the classifier requires more than the introduction of a new field in the database to storage the new economic activity of the e.u.