SPA Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation & Risk Assessment (LERA) Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes Project reference number: SfP-981416 Environmental Security Panel May 13th, 2005 Conference Room Brosio NATO Headquarters Bruxelles P

Project / Purpose Review LERA-relevant regulatory frameworks National (eg, Russian Federal Law on Technological Safety, Russian Federal Law on Technological Regulation, US DMA 2000) International (eg, Seveso Directive, Saveso-II Directive) Review / advance LERA methods Unified comprehensive LERA-methodology Natural-manmade catastrophes Terrorist attacks LERA Demonstration Project in Russia Toward an International LERA framework Integration of national approaches Consistent / common databases Goal economies (R&D, construction) improved safety standards P

Related R&D in Russia Federal State Program ‘Safety of Population and Industrial Facilities Taking into Account Risks of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes’ (1992-2000) Federal Special-Purpose Program ‘Reduction of Risks and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Manmade Emergencies in the Russian Federation’ (2000-2005) P

Institutional Involvement IMS / RAS LERA ~ manmade / natural catastrophes Methods for estimation of catastrophic losses (short-, middle-, and long-term future) IIES LERA ~ terrorist impacts Systems for protecting high potential loss facilities VT Disaster Reduction Building Security Enhancement (FEMA) National Capital Region Infrastructure Microzonation (Turkey) Electric Power reliability SPA Risk analysis Natural hazards Terrorism Insurance Industry CDDMRI / EMERCOM LERA ~ natural / manmade disasters GIS technologies S

LERA Current status LERA S

LERA technology: Current status LERA theory ~ developed Variety models emerging (HAZUS, LessLoss, CATS, EXTREMUM, RADIUS) National / inward focused Limited, poor communication Focus on Natural Hazards, neglect security No cross-pollination / inefficient Needs: Open LERA methods / models Accessible databases Wider acceptance S

Partner Contributions SPA - Experience in LERA / Application ~ regional planning; infrastructure mitigation programs; finance and insurance VT - Assessing critical infrastructures / evaluating efficiencies of safety related activities IIES - Assessing terrorist risk / systems for protection of high potential loss facilities from catastrophes and terrorist attacks IMS / RAS – LERA for industrial accidents / estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time CDDRMI – LERA for natural hazards / GIS S

Novelty of the project Broad-based approach to loss estimation deterministic, stochastic, fuzzy sets… International / Global Comprehensive – not just a single type of hazard (earthquake, flood, fire, terrorism, etc.) Integrated - Multihazards / Security Estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time S

Products Workshop on current LERA-methodologies Collection and comparative assessment of LERA-methodologies developed in NATO countries and Russia Synthesis of a comprehensive methodology Development of basic principles of the methodology for catastrophic estimation of risks and losses varying in time Demonstration project (Min. of Emergency Situations) S

Criteria for Success 1. Analysis existing LERA-methodologies 10% 2. Develop LERA specific hazards 15 % 3. Comprehensive LERA natural hazards / Security 35% 4. Method to estimate Cat losses ( short-, middle- and long-term) 20% 5. Dissemination to the international community 5%   6. Implementation in the Ministry of Emergency Situations 15% S

End-user · Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations: Natural / manmade catastrophes; prediction and prevention; consequence mitigation; rescue and response Contribution to the Project Staff, resources, databases, experience Demonstration project / application: mitigating the consequences of scenario catastrophe anticipating emergency response recovery and reconstruction P

Project strengths Comprehensive systems-based approach Contributes towards modern strategies of catastrophic safety management Permits catastrophic loss estimation varying in time Open issues: Limited data Uncertainty Lack of internationally accepted regulations and standards on risk management P

Contribution to stability, security, peace Contributes to modern strategies for ensuring safety Pooling efforts of specialists from NATO countries and Russia in disaster and terrorist risk management Key step towards a unified standardized methodology P

Thank You / Merci / Danke Schön / Spasibo Questions? P