Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts 11/23/2018 Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures 2001-2002 Fulbright Lecturer, Finland Futures Research Centre wendy@infinitefutures.com http://www.infinitefutures.com This Powerpoint presentation – both slides and notes – was initially created as an overview to futures research and futures research tools for the TUTU 1 class and the Post-graduate Studies Theme Seminar on that topic at Turun Kauppakorkeakoulu, on 28 February 2002, in Turku, Finland. Over the next two months, in the course of explaining both data-gathering and data-processing (extrapolation, impact assessment, pattern identification, systemic analysis, scenario building, and visioning) within futures studies, the presentation experienced additions, permutations, and transformations. The result is this collection of slides with attendant notes, which I hope offers a useful introductory-level overview to the philosophy, conceptual framework, tools, and weaknesses of what I call – depending on the audience – either applied futures research, or integrated foresight. Please email me your comments, additions, and constructive criticisms. wendy@infinitefutures.com 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures 11/23/2018 What do we... See: the past, the present, trends. Wonder: what might happen? Fear: past disasters --> future crises. Desire: past successes --> future goals. Believe: who/what makes change? DO: who/what could help us create change? 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures 2

Feelings and experiences: sources of ideas about the future History (experiences) Feelings about the future Image of the Possible Future outcomes were unexpected >>> uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…> WILDLY DIFFERENT: TRANSFORMATIONAL outcomes were disasters or failures >>> scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…> NEGATIVE: NIGHTMARE outcomes were wonderful! successes! >>> hope, excitement, anticipation, producing…> POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER outcomes followed an expected pattern >>> security, stability, producing…> CONTINUITY: STAYS THE SAME 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Guidelines for thinking about the future... 11/23/2018 Guidelines for thinking about the future... Make NO PREDICTIONS; Remember, there are NO FUTURE FACTS; TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE TODAY; Question assumptions when you hear, “[..X..]” could *never* happen…” 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures 3

copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Studies is… a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based approach to.. analyzing patterns of change in the past; identifying trends of change in the present; and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future, in order to help people create the futures they most desire. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Inter, trans, meta disciplinary: futures studies history philosophy, political science international relations systems science literature psychology economics …etc. sociology 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Alternative possible futures... 11/23/2018 Alternative possible futures... Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict; Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change. This, again, articulates an exaggerated perspective to make the point that the interrelationship between the linear and non-linear systems which compose reality generates uncertainty. trends innovations revolutions, etc. possibility one possibility two possibility three …etc. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

…alternative possible futures 11/23/2018 …alternative possible futures A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures; of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth; of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community. Assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, or collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary. Hence the need for ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change. Secondly, evaluating any given image of the future as aligning more or less closely with community values is important in assessing which futures offer conditions that best fit community goals in achieving a vision – a preferred future – but that evaluation of a possible set of conditions as preferable is NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a vision of a preferred future. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable 11/23/2018 Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable possible futures probable futures preferable futures objective of futures studies: act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures. Should be self-explanatory (if there is anything I can add to the notes page to make it clearer, please do not hesitate to email me). 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures Futures Studies is….. NOT prediction, but EXPLORATION and PROVOCATION. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Evaluating forecasts: Any useful statement about the future should seem to be ridiculous. -- Dator’s Axiom 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures