RESEARCH

Reasons for Thinking Critically 1.Hindsight Bias - the tendency to believe after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. “I knew it all along” 2001 - The “dot com bubble” crashed causing thousands of people to lose millions of dollars. “The market was obviously overdue for a correction” Give 1/2 the members of a group a finding. Group I: Psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic attraction. As the saying goes, ‘Out of sight, out of mind.’” ------- Imagine why this might be true. This is a true statement - Group 2: Psychologists have found that separation strengthens romantic attraction. As the saying goes,, ‘absence makes the heart grow fonder.’” Explain why so. Does this make sense? This is a not true statement. Both of these seem like common sense. But obviously there is a problem. Common sense can easily describe something after it has happened more so than what it predicts what will happen. ---Thus, learning the outcome of a study can make it seem like obvious common sense. Scientific inquiry and critical thinking can help us overcome this tendency to overestimate our intuition 9/11 - The World Trade Center’s north tower is hit by a commercial airliner. Forty-three minutes later the south tower is hit. “. . .people in the second tower should have immediately evacuated after the first was hit.” THINKING CRITICALLY

Reasons for Thinking Critically 2. Overconfidence - We tend to think we know more than we do. Anagrams: WREAT -> WATER ETYRN -> ENTRY GRABE -> BARGE About how many seconds do you think it would have taken you to unscramble each of these? Once people know the target word, hindsight makes it seem obvious - so much so that they become overconfident. They think they would gave seen the solution in only 10 seconds or so, when in reality the average problem solver spends 3 minutes. Check for your self? OCHSA - chaos * HINDSIGHT bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition. Scientific inquiry, fed by curious skepticism can help us sift reality from illusions. - We often look for evidence that proves we are right. Scientific approach makes test the so called evidence to discover whether we are really right or not. OCHSA CHAOS THINKING CRITICALLY

I. Critical Thinking - examines assumptions, discerns, hidden values, evaluates evidence and assess conclusions. THEORY Whether its reading a news report or listening to a conversation, critical thinkers ask questions. They wonder How do they know that? What is this person’s agenda? Is the conclusion based on intuition and gut feelings or on evidence? What other explanations are possible? We tend to use the word “theory” to mean “a hunch.” as in “I have a theory about that. . .” But in science, a theory is linked with observation. A theory according to our book is: a set of statements designed to account for, predict, and even suggest ways of controlling certain phenomena. In SHORT - A theory is supposed to be based on research results. A result of this scientific method or approach. THINKING CRITICALLY

SCIENTIFIC METHOD Observation - low self esteem contributes to depression. 1.Make Observation Hypothesis - People with low self esteem score higher on a depression scale 2. Form Hypothesis 3. Test Hypothesis (Collect Data) Survey - “I have good ideas” and “I am fun to be with.” & Depression diagnosis DEPRESSION - Imagine we observe over a short period of time that people with depression describe their past, present, & future in gloomy terms. We might therefore theorize that (CLICK) low self-esteem contributes to depression. Sounds good? Sure - but it still should be tested. So the first thing we do is write a testable prediction about something we want to study. What would a good Hypothesis be? People with low self esteem score higher on a depression scale. How would we test our hypothesis? We have to establish what is low self esteem and what is depression. We could give a survey, indicating their agreement to statements like, “I have good ideas” and “I am fun to be with.” From their we could see whether, as we hypothesized, people who report poorer self-images also score higher on a depression scale. --There can be bias in the experiment however. How? In the diagnosis or we may perceive depressed neutral comments as negative. One of the most important part of the scientific method is Replication. A valid result should be able to be replicated independently, whereas an invalid result (achieved due to some error or even just chance) will not be able to be consistently reproduced. No one can say that hypothesis is a theory without replication. We sometimes here about a study in the news how one experiment resulted in these amazing results. When you hear this, don’t get your hopes up. Wait. Wait for the experiment to be replicated over and over again to ensure that the first experiment’s results were accurate. What are Operational Definitions? - Directions for the experiment so anyone can replicate the experiment. It’s like a recipe book for the experiment. Even the boys on the Big Bang believe in the power of replication. - Click for Video https://vimeo.com/130699771 Prediction - “If we boost people’s self esteem, will their depression lift? 4. Analyze Results Fail Pass Replicate - “Other scientists repeat experiment using your operational definitions 5. Draw Conclusions Pass Many Times SCIENTIFIC METHOD

SCIENTIFIC METHOD Replication SCIENTIFIC METHOD Even the boys on the Big Bang believe in the power of replication. - Video link to Big Bang Theory Clip starts here. Mac users, click on black circle to open web video. Original Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2OMX6Su1kk SCIENTIFIC METHOD Replication

Observation - low self esteem contributes to depression. SCIENTIFIC METHOD Observation - low self esteem contributes to depression. 1. Make Observation Hypothesis - People with low self esteem score higher on a depression scale 2. Form Hypothesis 3. Test Hypothesis (Collect Data) Survey - “I have good ideas” and “I am fun to be with.” & Depression diagnosis In the end, our theory will be useful if it 1. effectively organizes a range of self reports and observations - puts all or most of our observations in 2. implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check the theory OR to derive practical applications. And in the end, further research may even revise the theory that EVEN Better predicts what we know about depression. Prediction - “If we boost people’s self esteem, will their depression lift? 4. Analyze Results Fail Replicate - “Other scientists repeat experiment using your operational definitions Pass 5. Draw Conclusions Fail Pass Many Times Replication - Theory 4 Goals of basic research - • Describe the phenomenon • make predictions • introduce enough controls over the variables • explain the phenomenon with some degree of confidence