The Red River Flood of 1997 in Grand Forks, North Dakota

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Presentation transcript:

The Red River Flood of 1997 in Grand Forks, North Dakota Predicting Flooding based on Snow Accumulation Jennifer Sorenson November 21, 2002

Location of the Red River

Red River Flood April 1997 100-year flood overall 500-year peak flows in some places 95% of residents evacuated Downtown fire $4 billion damages total – $3.6 billion in GF/EGF Pictures taken from the Grand Forks Herald

What caused the flood? 8 blizzards brought nearly 100 inches of snow Colder than normal spring temperatures Sudden snowmelt Top: Blizzard Betty with 40-mph winds and 50-below wind chill. Bottom: Blizzard Elmo left behind 20-foot snow drifts. Pictures from the Grand Forks Herald

Predicting Crest Levels Satellite and airborne remote sensing NOHRSC AVHRR from NOAA Snow cover GOES Surface Air Temp. Soil Moisture Gamma radiation detection systems NWS Snow Water Equivalent Crest Levels Snow model Rating Curves Estimate volume of snowmelt runoff

SWE along Red River

Rating Curve and Crest Level Predictions Daily Mean Streamflow Rating Curve Actual Crest Level on April 15 = 45.3 ft From USGS water resources website From “The Red River of the North 1997 Floods – Service Assessment and Hydraulic Analysis” performed by the NWS

Grand Forks Prepares NWS predicted crest level of 49.0 feet Grand Forks prepared for crest of 52.0 feet Pictures from the Grand Forks Herald

The Flood Devastation Pictures from “Come Hell and High Water”, produced by the Grand Forks Herald

NWS Lessons Learned NWS adjusted crest prediction to 50.5 ft on April 16, 1997 Actual crest occurred at 54.35 feet Difference of 3.8 feet attributable to: Bridge Effects Unsteady Backwater Surprise Discharge

Acknowledgements Dr. Maidment Dr. Tom Carroll, NOHRSC Grand Forks Herald