Water Quality Modelling & Monitoring

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Presentation transcript:

Water Quality Modelling & Monitoring Graeme Cameron Informatics Unit UKEOF Workshop March 2018

Modelling Overview SAGIS Modelling Framework Known Point sources Diffuse sources from co-efficient database Uses SIMCAT engine Generates Source Apportionment Outputs Used within SEPA for (among others) Regulation of discharges RBMP planning & implementation Catchment investigations

Known Points are Mapped Discharges Water Quality Monitoring Flow Gauging

Diffuse Inputs are Calculated Livestock Farming Arable Farming Urban Runoff Highway Runoff Septic Tanks Natural Background Intermittent Discharges Atmospheric Deposition

Gaps Extrapolated, Modelled & Calibrated Monte Carlo Mass Balance using SIMCAT Additional point frequency can be specified – 1 km

No model is ever perfect No model is ever perfect. We are always looking for ways to inform the process and improve the modelled outputs.

Modelling  Monitoring Feedback Mechanism ?? Uncertain flow regime !! obtain improved flow estimates; undertake gaugings; install devices ?? Uncertain abstraction volumes !! Improve regulatory monitoring/reporting; sensors ?? Uncertain climate !! run climate change scenarios; update with latest UKCIP information ?? Uncertain point source loads (WWTWs, CSOs etc.) !! improve regulatory reporting (ODR) and monitoring regimes !! Certain model calibration !! Reduce monitoring effort; redeploy monitoring effort elsewhere ?? Uncertain diffuse loads (agriculture, septic tanks, forestry etc.) !! Farm inspection activity; use higher resolution models to improve estimates; Commission R&D; deploy intensive monitoring in priority catchments ?? Uncertain urban impact !! Model population growth scenarios; improve diffuse urban runoff estimates ?? Uncertain model calibration !! Additional routine monitoring to improve data confidence; Blitz monitoring to identify unknown issues Modelling  Monitoring Feedback Mechanism ?? Uncertain waterbody classification !! Additional monitoring to improve data confidence and confirm status