PEANUTS: Responding to Opportunities and Challenges from Intertwined

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Presentation transcript:

PEANUTS: Responding to Opportunities and Challenges from Intertwined Trade and Domestic Policies

IS THIS THE FUTURE?

Or IS THIS THE FUTURE?

NICARAGUA BRAZIL PARAGUAY URUGUAY ARGENTINA

Argentina Background 2000 shelled peanuts import value in U.S 34.8 cents per pound Insurance + freight – less than 2 cents/lb U.S. shelled medium runners 1996-97 60 cents/lb range 1998-99 about 57.5 cents/lb

Argentina Tariff Equivalent 66.66%

ARGENTINA? Modern Technology in Production and Shelling Research Plots

Exchange Rate Devaluation January 1, 2002 Exchange Rate Devaluation 1.5-1.6 peso to $1 Free Market 3 peso to $1

Domestic Peanut Policy

2002 Farm Bill Peanut Title Buyout – 11 cents/lb, 5 years DP – 1.8 cents/lb Market loan - $355/ton Counter-cyclical – Target price $495/ton Eliminate quota Base – 1998-01 period for yield and acreage

Cropping Pattern Shifts Production Areas within States Interregional Production Areas Potential Infrastructure Shifts

Infrastructure Changes Grading – what type & who pays Handling fees Storage cost Transportation cost Buying Points – what is their role? Movement towards grains system? Vertical Integration – top down or bottom up

Trade Implications Tariffs Minimum Access Offshore manufacturing Amber box to Green box Elimination of excess profits Market share?

CHANGE Seasons change… "If you do not take change by the hand, change will take you by the throat.“ Winston Churchill Families change… Caterpillars change…