Model Calibration and Forecast Error for NFIE-Hydro

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Presentation transcript:

Model Calibration and Forecast Error for NFIE-Hydro A Progress Report By Corey Van Dyk

Model Calibration Determine set of HUC-12 basins for sensitivity analysis Basin characteristics Size of stream (average/base flow discharge) Land use Drainage density Climate (annual precipitation, evaporation) Recent meteorological history Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) would be used to help determine these basins Basins would be picked so that sets could be compared while only one parameter changes significantly

Assessing Predictive Models ECMWF (Tethys) NWS NFIE

Coverage NWS: 447 USGS: 413

Error Comparison - Gages

Error Comparison - ECMWF Dating problem with ECMWF/Tethys

Error Comparison - NFIE Download, analyze NetCDF files for NFIE predictions Determine association between gages to river reach in the model Extract flow from reach for comparison

Error Maps Compare error between models Compare error within model Shows where weaknesses are Gookyoung Heo

Questions?