2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast Macau Meteorological & Geophysical Bureau Apr 2013

Climate normal (1981-2010) - Precipitation(mm) Month Average Below normal Normal Above normal Jan 26.5 < 7.0 7.0-35.6 > 35.6 Feb 59.5 < 8.4 8.4-55.7 > 55.7 Mar 89.3 < 44.9 44.9-88.5 > 88.5 Apr 195.2 < 105.5 105.5-222.6 > 222.6 May 311.1 < 200.1 200.1-386.8 > 386.8 June 363.8 < 235.2 235.2-431.9 > 431.9 July 297.4 < 175.7 175.7-354.3 > 354.3 Aug 343.1 < 233.7 233.7-393.5 > 393.5 Sept 219.5 < 123.2 123.2-278.0 > 278.0 Oct 79.0 < 20.5 20.5-92.1 > 92.1 Nov 43.7 < 7.4 7.4-54.2 > 54.2 Dec 30.2 < 6.8 6.8-35.8 > 35.8 Annual 2058.1 < 1798.8 1798.8-2271.0 > 2271.0

Climate normal (1981-2010) - Temperature(℃) Month Average Below normal Normal Above normal Jan 15.1 ≤14.5 14.5-15.7 >15.7 Feb 15.8 ≤14.6 14.6-16.6 >16.6 Mar 18.3 ≤17.8 17.8-19.0 >19.0 Apr 22.1 ≤21.7 21.7-22.6 >22.6 May 25.6 ≤25.0 25.0-26.2 >26.2 June 27.6 ≤27.2 27.2-28.0 >28.0 July 28.6 ≤28.3 28.3-29.0 >29.0 Aug 28.4 ≤28.1 28.1-28.7 >28.7 Sept 27.4 27.2-27.8 >27.8 Oct 25.0 ≤24.7 24.7-25.4 >25.4 Nov 20.9 ≤20.4 20.4-21.6 >21.6 Dec 16.8 ≤16.2 16.2-17.5 >17.5 Annual 22.6 ≤22.4 22.4-22.9 >22.9

Precipitation & Temperature Anomaly in Macau(1952-2012) (1) Pre-flood season (Apr-June) (2) Post-flood season (July-Sept)

Review of 2012 flood season in Macau Precipitation(mm) Apr-June July-Sept Temperature(℃) Climate normal (1981-2010) 540.8-1041.3 532.6-1025.8 24.6-25.6 27.9-28.5 Average 870.1 860 25.1 28.1 Amount(2012) 679.6 611.2 25.5 27.9 Anomaly -21.9% -28.9% +0.4 -0.2 Forecast(last year) Normal

Model prediction for last year(2012) - ECMWF

2013 rainy season forecast for Macau

Model prediction- ECMWF

Model prediction - NCEP

Model prediction - NCEP

System & Circulation Analysis

Historical pattern composite – AMJ

Historical pattern composite – JAS

Geopotential height – 500hPa

Streamline Anomaly – 850hPa

Precipitation Anomaly

ITCZ - OLR 数据源: Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Pentads 12,18,24,30,36,42 Forecasts, NOAA

Results Analysis Subtropical-high is stronger than normal, which is not favored for precipitation but favored for high temperature in South China. The convection between the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea which extends east to the Western Pacific is stronger than normal, which may imply the ITCZ is stronger than normal and is further north.

ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013. ENSO prediction throughout 2013 中部 (10S-10N, 165E-140W) 東部 (15S-5N, 110-70W) 西部 (10S-20N, 125-145E) Nino3.4 (5S-5N, 120-165W) ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.

ENSO condition vs. Rainy season in Macau Source: Running 3-month mean ONI values,http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Conclusion Apr-June (Prec.) Apr-June (Temp.) July-Sept (Prec.) July-Sept (Temp.) ECMWF below normal above normal normal NCEP above normal IRI no signal ENSO reference System analysis Conclusion

Thank you !