Agriculture Market Fundamentals and Outlook 2017 G. Chandrashekhar

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Presentation transcript:

IMC-ERTF Seminar on Commodity Market Fundamentals and Union Budget 2017-18 Implications Agriculture Market Fundamentals and Outlook 2017 G. Chandrashekhar Economic Advisor, IMC and Director, IMC-ERTF

Wheat Market (million tons) Production 2015-16 2016-17 Global 737.0 752.0 India 92.3 ?? 96.6 ?? ??Harvest overstated; private estimates lower; high open market prices; imports; Risk factors: Weather; Crop size; FCI procurement;

Sugar Market 2016-17 (million tons) Op stocks 7.7 Production 20.0 Consumption 24.0 End stocks 3.7 Risk factors: Stock data reliability; Tightening fundamentals; Upside price risk; Need to import; Festival demand

Edible oil India: rebound in 2016-17 oilseeds output 33.6 ml t (25.2 ml t); of which G’nut 8.5 (6.7); Soy 14.1 (8.6); RM 7.9 (6.8); Domestic vegoil supplies 2 ml t higher; prices face pressure Global: As El Nino effect fades, 2016-17 CPO output to rebound to 65 ml t (60 ml t); China, India imports slowing; CPO prices under pressure <RM 3,000/t; expect RM 2500/t after April, down further in H2.

Thank You G. Chandrashekhar IMC-ERTF and Member, SEBI-CDAC Phone: 91 9821147594 email: gchandrashekhar@gmail.com