The Use of Enrollment Forecasts in School Redistricting May 17, 2018 McKibben Demographic Research Jerome McKibben, Ph.D. Rock Hill, SC j.mckibben@mckibbendemographics.com 978-501-7069

Why Redistrict our Attendance Boundaries? Redistricting is consistently one task that most school administrators dislike the most. Root canals tend to be more popular. Yet most school districts should modify their boundaries about every 15 years. However, most districts try to avoid redistricting for as long as they can. The problem then becomes worse. The longer the time between the redistricting processes, the more radical the changes in boundaries will need to be.

Reasons for Redistricting The reason most often cited - Capacity issues. The distribution of schools is static but the distribution of students is always changing. The second most common reason is to balance enrollment by race and ethnic characteristics. The third reason, and the one that is rapidly becoming one of the main factors, is to balance enrollment by socio-economic status. Finally, districts will usually have to redistrict when they are opening new facilities or closing ones that will be taken off line and not replaced.

So What’s the Problem? Districts usually develop a set of criteria or goals that they are trying to accomplish while redistricting. These goals include, but are not limited to – Move as few students as possible Have elementary schools feed entirely to middle schools Consider the transportation logistics required Allow for special programs in each facility But the most important factor is – Make these boundaries work for at least 10 to 12 years!

How do I Insure That the New Boundaries Will Work 10 Years From Now? When most district modify boundaries, they tend to address to current issue at hand. The future demographic and enrollment trends of the current areas AND the areas that are moved between zones tend to be ignored. By drawing new attendance zones with a knowledge of the future demographic characteristics will help the new boundaries stay applicable longer. The first rule: Always draw into the demographic trends of the area. The trends of the territory you add or subtract to an attendance area need to address the issues today and 5 to 10 years from now.

Using Demographic Population Forecasts Cohort- survival projections tell you nothing about the demographic characteristics of attendance areas or transfer areas. They assume that what has happened in the past will replicate itself its the future. Cohort – component forecasts account for several of the key variables that directly affect population and enrollment change. Such as: - Age sex distribution - Housing tenure - Household type - Household structure - Existing home sales - Socio economic status - New housing unit construction

Linking Demographic and Spatial Data to Small area Student Data Demographers have had the methodology to accurately calculate small area population forecasts for 50 years. The problem was we didn’t have any reliable small area data sources that we could use between the decennial censuses. The development and availability of GIS - based data files over the last 20 years has changed that. It is now possible to link demographic characteristics to enrollment characteristics at the block level. Or attendance area. Or an area that a district might want to move from one attendance area to another.

How is this done? The first step is to Geo code all students in the district in an ACR-GIS system. This allows the student data to be spatially linked the demographic data. Each data point can contain as many characteristics as you like. (SES, grade, race ethnic, housing tenure, age, etc.) This data can then be used is the calculation of full population forecasts. It can also be used to help explain the demographic characteristics of any attendance area or area to be moved.

No Two Geographic Areas Have the Same Demographic Composition To understand what the future population and enrollment trends of an area will be, you must first understand the similarities and differences of the areas with in the district. This information is key to the development of forecast models used to measure the changes in an area’s population over the next 10 to 15 years. It is also an excellent on educating the public of the true demographic nature of all parts of the district. It helps to move your planning away from “antidotal speculation”.

First, Bring All of the Students Back Home.

Next, Identify the Major Characteristics of Each Area The most important variable? The age-sex composition of the population. This variable is the one that has the most influence on an areas future population trends and consequently, the future enrollment trends. No two areas have the exact same age-sex distribution.

Andover Public Schools, MA Total Population – 2010 Census

Sanborn Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

Hardy Area – 2010 Census

Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census

You Can Also Include Other Administrative or Independent Data Sets These can include but are not limited to: New single family home construction New rental unit construction Existing home sales Infrastructure improvements Economic development

All This Information is Used to Develop a Population Forecast Model for an Area For each area, a fertility, morality and migration model is created All models are age specific so that it reflects how each areas population will change as it goes through the life course. The results of the population forecast are ten used to drive an enrollment forecast A set of assumptions are created for each area to use as parameters to issue that the forecast results or the “most likely” to occur over the next 10 to 15 years.

Andover Public Schools: Total Population

How Does This Work in Real Life? The following is a case involving a school district in North Carolina The previous redistricting four years earlier resulted in substantial public opposition and resistance. An attempt this time was made to identify key demographic trends that would make the new boundaries useable for a much longer period of time

Marvin Ridge Cluster Enrollment Forecast