Graphical Presentation for Robustness Checks AKA Pretty Pictures for Everyone! Benjamin Graham

Today’s Plan Powersharing and Democratic Survival Varying the Lags Hard Cases (aka subsetting the sample) Benjamin Graham

Powersharing and Democratic Survival Three types of powersharing Inclusive, Dispersive, Constraining Which, if any, promote democratic survival? If you are a democracy in year t, what institutions cause you to still be a democracy in year t+5? Benjamin Graham

The Data 180 countries from 1975-2010 Index measures of each type of powersharing Observational data Benjamin Graham

Causal inference in this context Benjamin Graham

19 page paper 41 page online appendix

Empirical Approach Sample = Democracies in year t Dependent Variable: Regime type (binary) in year t+5 Logit regressions Benjamin Graham

Varying the Lags The choice of five years is arbitrary So let me show you what happens with: 1 year lag 2 year lag ... 8 year lag 10 year lag Benjamin Graham

I could make a giant regression table Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

What do you need? Coefficients & standard errors from your variables of interest Organized into their own mini dataset Benjamin Graham

First set up the mini-dataset drop if gwno == . scalar numobs = _N moreobs 10 gen lead = . replace lead = _n-numobs foreach var in constraining inclusive dispersive{ gen `var'_coef = . gen `var'_se = . } Benjamin Graham

Then fill in the values forvalues i=1(1)10 { quietly logit F`i'.democracy constraining CONTROLS, robust replace constraining_coef = _b[constraining] if lead == `i' replace constraining_se = _se[constraining] if lead == `i' } Then drop everything else and save drop if lead == . keep lead constraining_coef constraining_se saveold varying_lags, replace version(13) Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

Hard Case Subsamples Some countries are at no risk of democratic failure Are low-risk countries driving our results? Evaluate subsamples of high risk cases Benjamin Graham

Hard Case Subsamples Recent civil war (3 flavors) High state fragility New democracy Poor Recent financial crisis Ethnic divisions (2 flavors) Low predicted survival (our own models) Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

And if you need help with any of this… The slides and code are up on my website under “Useful Stuff” SPEC Lab stats consulting office hours https://statsconsulting.youcanbook.me/ And/or email me: benjamin.a.graham@usc.edu Don’t be shy! Benjamin Graham