Luke LeBel – University at Albany

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New York State Mesoscale Weather Network

Presentation transcript:

An Analysis of a Possible New York Dryline utilizing the New York State Mesonet Luke LeBel – University at Albany Jerry Brotzge – New York State Mesonet 18th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, NY 1-2 November 2017

Overview of Event (29-31 May 2017) 5/29: a boundary moved into western New York in the morning. It remained stationary and intensified as a moisture gradient in the afternoon. 5/30: the boundary weakened overnight, but reintensified over western NY in the afternoon. Thunderstorms developed along and near the boundary. 5/31: the initial boundary largely weakened. A second smaller boundary developed in the Mohawk Valley. This boundary was associated with severe weather reports.

Day 1: 29 May 2017 Image: 21z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 12z Image from: WPC

Day 1: 29 May 2017 Image: 21z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for development: Increased moisture convergence along/ahead of the boundary Increased solar insolation/mixing behind the boundary Precipitation ahead of the boundary 29 May 21z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for development: Increased moisture convergence along/ahead of the boundary Increased solar insolation/mixing behind the boundary Precipitation ahead of the boundary 29 May 18:15z http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for development: Increased moisture convergence along/ahead of the boundary Increased solar insolation/mixing behind the boundary Precipitation ahead of the boundary 29 May 18z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Day 2: 30 May 2017 Image: 21z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for maintenance: Increased moisture convergence along/ahead of the boundary Increased solar insolation/mixing behind the boundary Precipitation ahead of the boundary 30 May 18:15z http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for maintenance: Increased moisture convergence along/ahead of the boundary Increased solar insolation/mixing behind the boundary Precipitation ahead of the boundary 30 May 18z

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Images from: Nathan Bain

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Images from: Nathan Bain

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Vertical structure of the boundary: Broad, weak ascent along/ahead of moisture gradient Light SE near surface winds to the east of boundary Stronger, deeper W winds behind the boundary Boundary tilts to the east with height Warmer surface temperatures, steeper lapse rates behind the boundary Parsons et al. 1991

Day 3: 31 May 2017 Image: 18:30z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Day 3: 31 May 2017 Image: 18:30z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for development: Terrain channeling resulting in enhanced convergence? Increased mixing west of the boundary 31 May 18z http://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Possible mechanisms for development: Terrain channeling resulting in enhanced convergence? Increased mixing west of the boundary 30 May 15:15z http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Vertical structure (Albany 18z sounding): Moist layer with southerly winds in lowest 1 km Dry, mixed layer with westerly winds above

17z 17:30z 18z 18:30z 19z 19:30z 20z 20:30z

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather Conclusions: A strong dew point gradient developed in association with a remnant frontal boundary and wind shift This dew point gradient was maintained by vertical mixing, repeated precipitation, and moisture convergence The dew point gradient had vertical properties similar to those of a traditional Great Plains dryline A second dew point gradient developed in the Capital Region on 31 May and appears to have influenced the severity of thunderstorms in the region

New York State Mesonet 126 standard sites 17 profiler sites 17 flux sites 17 snow sites

Boundary and Severe Weather 29 May 2017: Boundary Development 30 May 2017: Boundary Maintenance 31 May 2017: Boundary and Severe Weather