VERIFICATION – DAY 1 - 68 - CLD: 9/10 (5).

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Accessing and Interpreting Web-based Weather Data Clinton Rockey National Weather Service Portland, Oregon.
Advertisements

CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - Radar - RadarNWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc.
Penn State Weather Camps Sat I Sat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - RadarSat II NWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc. map 2sfc map 3 ->
Upper Air Charts By Tom Collow November 8, Reading Upper Air Charts Temperature (°C) Dewpoint Depression (°C) Height Wind direction and speed (knots)
Review for Final Exam. Final Exam Tuesday December 17 th, 5pm-7:30pm Room CC301 (this room) 25% of final grade Combination of quick general questions.
Ch 8: Lesson 4: How are Forecasts Made?. Collecting Data To describe a weather system, you need to describe all its parts; 1.temperature 2.moisture 3.clouds.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - Sat II - Radar -Sat II Radar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc.
Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting Surface weather maps 500mb weather maps Satellite Images Radar Images.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - Radar - RadarNWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc.
Basic Forecast Guidelines. Penn State Weather Camps Sat I Sat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - RadarSat II NWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc.
Forecasting Technique: Pattern Recognition Associating a “weather pattern” to a “weather event” Significant weather events have patterns –surface features.
THE MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH TORNADO OUTBREAK... WHY IT NEVER OCCURRED Dan Valle National Weather Service Memphis, TN.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarSat II Sat III NWSNHCRadar sfc.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarNWSNHCRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc.
Know what to expect! = Climo. PSU … June 22 data RH RL.
Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarSat II Sat III NWSNHCRadar sfc.
The “Potential” Southwest Sucker
5 Day Forecast Mon Tues Wed Thu Fri.
Penn State Weather Camps
Mean: 80.5 /61.2 Median: 81 /61 Range: /72-46 Mean: 0.10”
Penn State Weather Camps
Mean: 80.5 /61.2 Median: 81 /61 Range: /72-46 Mean: 0.10”
VERIFICATIONS Rain = yes - CLD: 3.5/10 - THUN PA = ??
Penn State Weather Camps
The Christmas Day Snowstorm of 2002
Forecasting Techniques
Better Forecasting Bureau
Basic Forecasting Tips
Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER
Penn State Weather Camps
Part 12 11/15/2018.
Oneonta Weather.
Part 9 11/24/2018.
Part 8 11/24/2018.
Oneonta Weather.
Part 10 11/24/2018.
Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class)
Penn State Weather Camps
Part 5 12/1/2018.
CLIMO EXERCISE LONG-TERM AVERAGES.
Know what to expect! = Climo.
New Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC
Part 3 1/3/2019.
Part 11 1/15/2019.
De donde son ustedes?.
Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – PRECIP – DEW 65
VERIFICATION – DAY (noon) - 74 (high) - CLD: 2.5/10.
VERIFICATION – DAY CLD: 6.5/10.
Part 7 2/22/2019.
Part 2 2/24/2019.
VERIFICATION – DAY – High - CLD: 5/10.
Forecast Verification time!
VERIFICATIONS Rain in SC by 4 p.m. = no - CLD: 9/10
DAY 3 Winners Redux = SPC.
Oneonta Weather.
De donde son ustedes?.
Forecast Verification time!
Model Output Statistics
CIFFC Telecon: # Adobe Connect:
Forecast Verification time!
Forecast Verification time!
Forecast Verification time!
Forecast Verification time!
Forecast Verification time!
Forecast Verification time!
De donde son ustedes? (Where are you from) Most interesting weather
De donde son ustedes? (Where are you from) Most interesting weather
Forecast Verification time!
Presentation transcript:

VERIFICATION – DAY 1 - 68 - CLD: 9/10 (5)

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 73 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

- svr reports = MA/NY/CT RADAR LOOP VERIFICATION – DAY 1 - 68 - CLD: 9/10 (5) - SC Rain = no ( but …) - svr reports = MA/NY/CT WINNERS, WINNERS …… CHICKEN DINNERS …

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TUES

H PA NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TUES. Trough Axis H

NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TUES.

OLDER MODEL RUN - NAM

NEWER MODEL RUN - NAM

OLDER MODEL RUN - GFS

NEWER MODEL RUN - GFS

OLDER MODEL RUN - NAM

NEWER MODEL RUN - NAM

OLDER MODEL RUN - GFS

NEWER MODEL RUN - GFS

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3 - EWALL

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 PANEL map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED.

NAM MODEL FCST – 500 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED.

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED. SVR. WX. TRIANGLE

NAM MODEL FCST – 700 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED. E-WALL

MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends

RISING AIR = CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Ways to produce rising motion: FRONTS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS MOUNTAINS (ORAGRAPHY) CONVECTION

Cloud top Height ? (50,000 ft. vs. 20,000 ft.) 500 mb -15C -10C -15C