POL 3162 Introduction to American Politics PUBLIC OPINION AND THE MEDIA SHANG E. HA SOGANG UNIVERSITY

Overview APT, Chapter 6 What is public opinion? Where do opinions come from? How is public opinion measured? What are the characteristics of US public opinion? How does public opinion matter? How do people use the media to learn about politics? How does media coverage influence public opinion and policy?

Public Opinion on Gun Control

Public Opinion on Gun Control Pictured are teddy bears with the names and ages of the children who were shot and killed at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT on December 14th, 2012. (20 elementary school students and 4 teachers were killed by a mentally ill shooter.) In a January 2013 poll 91% of respondents favored criminal background checks for gun sales 73% favored criminal penalties for anyone who sold a gun to someone who had not passed a background check Why has apparent public support for gun control not resulted in new legislation?

What is Public Opinion? Citizens’ opinions about politics and government actions Ideally, public opinion should Motivate public officials Help explain policy outcomes However, older scholarship interprets the evidence to conclude that “Americans have no firm beliefs about government and thus can be easily swayed by candidates, media, and interest groups.”

Two Types of Opinion Some opinions are formed early and remain stable throughout a lifetime Political socialization – the process by which an individual’s political opinions are shaped by other people (e.g., parents) and the surrounding culture Party identification (like “religious affiliation”) Political ideology (liberal vs. conservative) Others are more fluid and vary with events Various issue positions Presidential approval

Surveying Political Principles SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Beyond Red vs. Blue”

Liberal-Conservative Ideology in America SOURCE: Data from 2008 General Social Survey

Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America, 1970– 2010

Tracking Events and Public Opinion, 2004–2010 SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Midterm Election Challenges for Both Parties,” February 12, 2010

Approval Ratings for President Obama, 2009-2010

Measuring Public Opinion Survey: a way to measure public opinion by interviewing a large number of people Population: the group of people that a researcher wants to study Sample: within a population, the group of people surveyed in order to gauge the whole population’s opinion Researchers use samples because it would be impossible to interview the entire population “Representative Sample”: a sample that represents the population reasonably well.

Measuring Public Opinion (con’t) Random sample: a subset of a population chosen to participate in a survey through a selection process in which every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen. It makes the sample “representative” of the population Sampling error: a calculation that describes what percentage of the people surveyed may not accurately represent the population being studied Increasing the number of respondents lowers the sampling error

Sampling Error

Various Modes of Survey Face-to-face interviewing is best, but it is difficult to generate a random sample Random digit dialing (telephone survey) is useful, but the inability to call cell phone numbers may be a problem Internet-based polls face criticism and doubts about sample selection Mailing is usually not recommended because the response rates tend to be too low

The Impact of Question Wording on Opinions In this 2013 survey on the surveillance of phone records and digital metadata by the National Security Agency (NSA), support or opposition to the NSA surveillance changed based on whether the questions mentioned court approval or the terrorist threat and based on the types and source of data. In light of how the responses to survey questions are shaped by the precise wording of these questions, what sort of question would you ask if your goal was to show that Americans favored increased surveillance? What if you wanted to show high levels of opposition?

Question Wording

Problems of the Survey Surveys often ask about complex issues that respondents may not have thought about Samples may be biased, despite heroic efforts to randomize them Some people may also be reluctant to say their opinions to an interviewer Respondents’ opinions may change from day to day The wording of the questions may distort respondents’ results The timing of the survey (including events on the day the survey was carried out) can influence responses. Answers may reflect how familiar people are with the topics of the questions. All surveys that use a sample of the population can only measure public opinion within a margin of error (sampling error)

The Accuracy of Public Opinion Survey results are most believable when: The problems with surveys are taken seriously by the survey developer. Representative sample, response rate, question wording, etc Multiple surveys confirm the same result.

Measuring What a Nation of 300 Million Thinks

Surveying the 2012 Elections

Politicians and Public Opinion Politicians, parties, party leaders, interest groups, and religious leaders not only reflect but can also influence our political preferences. Politicians try to shape opinion rather than pander to it by describing their proposals in language that taps into deeply-held public opinions. Politicians can fail to persuade the public when they have the wrong issue, the wrong message, or bad communications strategy.

News Media in America Mass Media: Sources that provide information to average citizens on a day-to-day basis. Examples Newspapers: New York Time, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, etc Magazines: Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The New Republic, The Nation, etc Television: CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, CNN, etc Radio Internet (including blogs, Youtube, Twitter, etc)

Media Effects: How Does Media Affect Our Political Perceptions? Filtering (or Agenda-Setting) – the influence on public opinion that results from journalists’ and editors’ decisions about which of many potential news stories to report Slant – the imbalance in a story that covers one candidate or policy favorably without providing similar coverage of the other side

Media Effect (con’t) Priming – the influence on the public’s general impressions caused by positive or negative coverage of a candidate or issue Framing – the influence on public opinion caused by the way a story is presented or covered, including the details, explanations, and context offered in the report

Framing Effects

Examining Framing Effects (Nelson, Clawson, and Oxley 1997)

Measuring Framing Effects

Measuring Framing Effects

Summary of Nelson, Clawson, and Oxley (1997) According to the results of the study, the group that heard the “public safety frame” was significantly less tolerant than the group that had the safety concerns omitted. This shows that media framing—the details that are included and omitted and the way the story is presented—can have a big impact. Additional research shows that when frames are simple, easy-to-understand, and only one side of the issue is presented are the situations when framing is most powerful. TV, with its short, simple messages and striking visual imagery, has especially strong framing effects on viewers.

Partisanship and News Source Credibility

Assessing Media Coverage of American Politics Hostile media phenomenon – the idea that supporters of a candidate or issue tend to feel that media coverage is biased against their position. Attack journalism – A type of journalism where “bad news makes for good news,” “the mere whiff of a controversy or scandal is grounds for a story.” Horse race coverage – The type of election coverage that focuses more on poll results and speculation about a likely winner than on substantive differences between the candidates.

Political Apathy Even if reporters did explain how government works and why debate and compromise are necessary, it is not very likely that citizens would start loving politics and the political process. Citizens do not like being exposed to uncertainty, debate, bargains, and so forth. An old saying in American politics is “If you want to enjoy sausage or legislation, don’t watch it being made.” The law-making process can leave many Americans disgusted or frustrated—but just as many are bored or more interested in something else.