Thomas Frank, What’s the Matter with Kansas (2004) and Andrew Gelman, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State (2008) N. R. Miller POLI 423

Kansas is a relatively poor state. Most of its population is hurt by conservative policies, would be helped by Democratic ones. Yet it is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Republicans have won working class support by appealing to “cultural wedge issues like guns and abortion.” Moreover, the Kansas pattern has to some extent been replicated nationwide, creating a “dominant [Republican] political coalition”

What Is Going On? “Wal-Mart [or Sam’s Club] Republicans”? “Trust fund Democrats”? What’s The Matter With Kansas? How Conservatives Won the Heart of America? (Thomas Frank) Are we that far beyond the New Deal electoral alignment? Actually -- No

Bartels examines Frank’s thesis using ANES data Frank is really referring to white working class voters. Definition of “working class”? Occupation Income Education Self Placement Bartels examines Frank’s thesis using ANES data First version of paper used Income, to which Frank objected Published version uses Education (no college degree)

Bartels (cont.) Moreover, in so far as “white working class support” for Democrats has declined, the effect is almost entirely confined to the formerly [Democratic] “Solid South” In so far as cultural issues have increased in importance relative to economic (class) issues, the effect has been much greater among (upper) middle class voters than working class voters. Many middle/upper class voters in blue states are socially liberal and vote Democratic, many fewer in red states.

Uses 2000 and 2004 National and State Exit Polls Plus ANES Andrew Gelman et al., “Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What’s the Matter with Connecticut,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science (March 2007) The following charts are all from the 2000 National and State Exit Polls.

2004: If Only Middle $ Voted

2004: If Only Rich Voted

2004: If Only Poor Voted

Rich vs. Poor States/ Rich vs. Poor Voters