Additional NARCCAP Results

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Presentation transcript:

Additional NARCCAP Results Melissa Bukovsky

No Model Is Perfect Some Models Are Useful They all have problems - global or regional

Surface Overview

Winter Temperature Bias

Summer Temperature Bias

CGCM, CRCM-ncep, CRCM-cgcm Winter

CGCM, CRCM-ncep, CRCM-cgcm Summer

GFDL, RCM3-ncep, RCM3-gfdl Winter

GFDL, RCM3-ncep, RCM3-gfdl Summer

Monthly Precipitation From Wang et al. 2009 (JRL) Fig. 1. (a) Orography and (b) cold-season rainfall (Nov-May, Udel) of the Intermountain Region. The major mountain ranges are outlined by red lines. (c)-(g) Monthly rainfall histograms of Udel, averaged from the five regions indicated in Fig. 1b, superimposed with the corresponding precipitation of the NARR (thick black line) and all RCMs (color lines).

Diurnal Cycle: Temperature Good example of how not to do a comparison with the NARR…

Diurnal Cycle: Precipitation

Summer Precipitation NCEP Driven Runs NARR CRCM ECPC HRM3 NARR precip… caveats! Summer Precipitation NCEP Driven Runs

Summer Precipitation NCEP Driven Runs NARR MM5I RCM3 WRFP Summer Precipitation NCEP Driven Runs

1980-1999 JJA GCM Precipitation CCSM 1980-1999 JJA GCM Precipitation GFDL NARR

1980-2000 JJA Precipitation w/ GCM Driven Run: CRCM and CGCM NARR 1980-2000 JJA Precipitation w/ GCM Driven Run: CRCM and CGCM CRCM-ncep CRCM-cgcm

1980-2000 JJA Precipitation w/ GCM Driven Run: RCM3 and GFDL NARR 1980-2000 JJA Precipitation w/ GCM Driven Run: RCM3 and GFDL RCM3-gfdl RCM3-ncep

JJA 1980-2000 Precipitation Maximum Amplitude and Time of Maximum NARR JJA 1980-2000 Precipitation Maximum Amplitude and Time of Maximum CRCM HRM3 MM5I HRM3 does precipitate around midnight – no signs of propagation, light pr MM5I, does also, no signs of propagtion, light pr

JJA 1980-2000 3-hr Average Pr NARR CRCM 00 UTC 03 UTC 06 UTC 09 UTC

6h Pr Frequency Distribution 1980-1999/2000 JJA GCMs NARR 6h Pr Frequency Distribution 1980-1999/2000 JJA GCMs % CCSM GFDL

3h Pr Frequency Distribution 1980-1999/2000 JJA RCMs NARR % CRCM ECPC RCM frqdist HRM3 MM5I RCM3 WRFP 3h Pr Frequency Distribution 1980-1999/2000 JJA RCMs (mm/h)