THE POST HOC FALLACY and THE 2016 Presidential Campaign

HILLARY CLINTON FACT: In 2009 Bill Clinton was paid $17.6 million by a company called Laureate International Universities as a consultant and “honorary chancellor.” The $17.6 million was paid over five years until the contract ended in 2015 when Hillary Clinton launched her campaign for president. FACT: In 2010, Laureate International Universities was invited by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to attend a private State Department dinner on higher- education policy . The dinner, which was attended by leaders from internationally renowned universities, included a discussion about the role of higher education in global diplomacy. (Many colleges occasionally attempting to expand overseas must tangle with foreign regulators.) From The Washington Post, September 5, 2016

DONALD TRUMP FACT: In September, 2013, a twenty-five-thousand-dollar payment was made by the Trump Foundation to a political group supporting the reëlection of Pam Bondi, the Attorney General of Florida. Shortly before the donation was made, Bondi, a Republican, was deciding whether to launch a formal investigation into Trump University, following complaints by Florida residents who claimed that they had been bilked. FACT: Shortly after Trump’s charity made the donation, Bondi announced that she wouldn’t go ahead with the probe of Trump University. From The New Yorker, September 7, 2016

FRACKING

FRACKING Disposal wells are used by oil and gas producers to get rid of wastewater from the drilling process. The wells push the wastewater deep underground, even deeper than where oil and gas are found. The wastewater mostly consists of a substance called brine -- a mix of water and chemicals that comes to the surface with oil and gas when they are pumped from the Earth. A small portion is also the water that's pumped underground in the modern hydraulic fracturing process, a drilling technique often referred to as fracking.

FRACKING https://www.epa.gov/hfstudy/hydraulic-fracturing-water-cycle

Did the disposal wells cause the earthquake? FRACKING Did the disposal wells cause the earthquake? That is the concern. Oklahoma didn't have much of a history of earthquakes. But a big one struck in November 2011, causing injuries and leveling houses, and officials said in 2014 that earthquakes in the state have increased 5,000%. Scientists began looking into the role pumping liquid under ground can play in seismic activity decades ago. And while much remains unknown, government scientists said in March that disposal wells have caused an increased risk for "induced" earthquakes in large areas of the country. That includes the area where the Oklahoma earthquake occurred. http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/04/news/economy/oklahoma-earthquake-oil-gas-explainer/index.html

FRACKING

FRACKING “Experts have stated over and over again that the fracking is not the cause of earthquakes in Oklahoma. Wastewater disposal from day-to-day production — a completely separate process from fracking — is the likely cause,” said Seth Whitehead, a researcher for the pro-industry group Energy In Depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) states in the very first sentence of its list of earthquakes myths and misconceptions that “Fracking is NOT causing most of the induced earthquakes,” further clarifying that “Wastewater disposal is the primary cause of the recent increase in earthquakes in the central United States.” The “controversial method of hydraulic fracturing or fracking, even though that may be used in the drilling, is not physically causing the shakes,” said USGS researcher William Ellsworth. http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/07/media-repeats-myth-about-fracking-and-oklahoma-earthquakes/#ixzz4Jh9J36nR

FRACKING Stanford geophysicist Mark Zoback explains, quite bluntly, that Oklahoma’s quakes are “… not caused by the hydraulic fracturing process at all.”  Dr. Matthew Hornback, a professor of geophysics at Southern Methodist University, when asked if fracking causes significant earthquakes, said “[w]e’re not talking at all about fracking. In fact, it’s been driving us crazy, frankly, that people keep using it in the press.”. Reports by National Research Council, the USGS and several other university studies all concluding that fracking is not causing the quakes. Earthquakes in Oklahoma were actually down 52 percent this year compared to 2015, according to data from the Oklahoma Geological Survey. http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/07/media-repeats-myth-about-fracking-and-oklahoma-earthquakes/#ixzz4Jh9J36nR